There have been interesting arguments over Minister of Finance, Kemi Adeosun’s observation that “recession is just a word”, and NAN MD, Bayo Onanuga claiming that reports of hardship in the land is exaggerated propaganda. I think we need to break down the subject further from a layman’s perspective. Recession is a word, no doubt, but it is more than a word, it is an experience: the experience that the majority of Nigerians is going through.
If you are at a significant remove from that experience, it may be difficult to know how it feels, and if you are an economist, you are likely to be conveniently obsessed with textbook ideas.
Recession is when Nigerians begin to shift the traditional dates for social parties. You know we love parties a lot. Virtually every weekend, there is one party or the other, very loud celebrations where people wear the famous aso ebi, and the Naira becomes a flying object, being thrown all over the place, at the musician, the celebrant, and her friends and family, with so much joy floating in the air, and plates of jolloff rice, eaten half way and left to waste, area boys having their own share of the fun, and Nigerians showing the world that life is indeed for the living.
Sometimes, these parties make no sense: imagine a man throwing a big party to “turn the back” of his great grandfather who died 50 years ago (!) – a great grandfather he never knew, or a lavish party to celebrate the purchase of a second-hand car. Those things are very rare these days. And when some parties are held, the date on the invitation card is during the week: can you imagine being invited to a wedding on a Monday? I have seen that happen. The event was over and done with before 5 pm. Smart way to save money in a season of recession. There were guests of course, but not the kind of crowd you’d get at a typical Nigerian party on a Friday or Saturday. The celebrants actually confessed they didn’t have the means to feed too many people. That is what recession has done. Nobody boasts anymore about “declaring surplus” - a once-upon-a-time very famous phrase in this country!
When I was much younger, my friends and I used to gate-crash parties. Bored, with not much to do, we would dress up and go from one party to the other. It was called “mo gbo mo ya” – I heard and I came. In those days, all you needed was to go to a party to which you had not been invited, and without knowing anybody, you took a seat and before long, someone would come along and ask if you had eaten. In a matter of minutes, whatever you wanted would be placed before you. Drinks? Some friends used to boast about “finishing” a carton of beer, and they would have their fill and quietly sneak away. Try that these days and you would know that recession is more than a word. Virtually every party is now strictly by invitation. Even when it is not boldly stated on the invitation card, you’d get to know the truth when you attempt to gate-crash.
Parties are now organized with such strict protocols, it is like trying to access Aso Villa. You would be screened, your bag will be checked, and don’t think it is Boko Haram attack they are afraid of, they just want to be sure you are not gate-crashing, and if you don’t have an invitation card, you would of course be turned back. There are some exceptions of course, where the protocol is a matter of security: particularly at those parties where there would be many VIPs. Nigerian VIPs don’t like to mix with just anybody.
Even if you manage to gatecrash, nobody will attend to you. What operates at parties these days, is a KYG (Know-Your-Guest) system. After sitting down, someone has to identify you as his or her guest. You don’t get served food, unless your host or hostess gives specific instructions. And you can’t drink a carton of beer anymore at your host’s expense! I certainly can’t remember when last I saw anyone getting drunk at other people’s expense at a party. Even close friends of celebrants, the ones who are a bit comfortable, go to parties these days with their own small cooler of drinks. The celebrant will offer you one or two bottles. If you want more than that, the ushers could become hostile or they could tell you pointedly: “drinks have finished.” I have had on one occasion to give the ushers, money to go and get me the drink of my choice. But once upon a time in this country, drinks don’t stop flowing at parties. The host will be so ashamed he or she would order more drinks and apologize to no end.
Where I come from, local women used to go to parties with cellophane bags, hidden away somewhere, and when they are served food, they would pull out the cellophane bag and pour food into it, all of that is done under the table. Next thing: they will start harassing the ushers: “we have not eaten here oh. Nobody has given us drinks: drinks they have moved to their collection cellophane bags! But party organizers have also learnt to be vigilant: they serve table to table; map out the space carefully and monitor the tables. Before 2019, perhaps a time will come when ushers will take your photograph, or there will be CCTV monitors at social events, just so you don’t come back and say you have not been served. That is change. That is recession. If you are a man-about-town, you can’t fail to notice this: that something has indeed changed in the social circuit. But there is that one per cent crowd, whose pockets are still so deep, if you get invited to their parties, it is like going to a surplus-declaration event, what Nigerians call “too much money.” Even that is changing though, people are learning to be careful, so they don’t get invited to come and explain how they came about so much money.
Recession is when you now read in the newspapers virtually every week about people committing suicide. Nigerians are so fun-loving we were once described as the happiest people on earth. Right now, we will fail the test. Suicide used to be so rare in this country. It was considered impossible. Why would anyone want to kill himself? I used to hear people say: “eba is sweet oh, I can’t come and die” or “life is for the living”, or “e go better”. People are not so sure anymore. In the past month, there have been reports about two foreigners doing business in Nigeria who have also committed suicide. Every reported suicide in recent times, has been tied, one way or the other, to the recession in the country. One man had an argument with his wife over school fees and housekeeping money and he went and ended it all. Another man actually left a note saying he had to kill himself because there is too much hardship in the country. Marriages are collapsing. Domestic violence is on the rise.
Husbands that are out of work can no longer maintain their families, they can’t pay school fees, they have become useless in their own homes, they are helpless. Their wives want to leave, even when they are not too sure of the next destination. There are at least two celebrated cases of women who have either slain their husbands or wounded them badly. In both cases, there was that notorious thing about a second woman in the background. Sharing what is not enough for one person with another woman, in a season of recession, could be a crime, but the biggest dysfunction is that of the pocket. One woman, a lawyer oh (!) stabbed her husband in the neck. Another after having sex with her husband, and putting him to sleep, got a machete and butchered him. The man is presently in what Yorubas call, “boya o ma ku, boya o maa ye” condition. Whether he would live or die is uncertain.
Recession is when companies are retrenching everyday or closing shop and SMEs are dying. In the last one year, high unemployment figures have been announced. Banks have had to shed weight; the foreign exchange crisis has forced many companies to downsize or abandon Nigeria, investors are taking their funds out of the country, many states of the Federation are so much in distress, they have stopped paying salaries. Civil servants cannot even afford a bag of rice, because their minimum wage is N18, 000 and a bag of rice is N22, 000 or higher in some places. Recession is when Nigerians now steal pots of soup and basic food items, and they can’t buy rams for Sallah, and they are told “don’t worry, change begins with you!” Every worker who has lost his or her job in the last one year is not the only one affected, the knock-on effect has brought anguish to other dependants, who now have a bread-winner behaving like a bread seeker. That is recession. That is hardship.
Recession is when enjoyment spots that used to be filled up every Friday evening are now empty. Nigerians used to celebrate what they call “Thank God it is Friday.” In Lagos, Friday evenings used to be the boys’ night. Husbands didn’t go home early. These days, husbands go home early and Fridays have become slightly boring. Recession is when prostitutes reduce their charges. I have it on good authority, from those who know, that even prostitutes have had to embrace change. And old girlfriends now demand pension benefits. Recession is when families which used to run the generator 24 hours and boast that their children can’t stand heat, have had to adjust, and run the generator only from 12 midnight, or before. Recession is when men come out and complain that their wives no longer allow them to touch them: “Are you mad? With the way things are, all you think of is sex?” Kama Sutra rites are best enjoyed only in happy lands. Recession is when in spite of all this, the breweries in Nigeria are posting unbelievable record profits and smiling to the banks. The men go home and privately drown their sorrow in bottles. Mrs Adeosun, this is the true meaning of recession.
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Saturday, 10 September 2016
Open Heavens 10 September 2016: Saturday daily devotional by Pastor E. A. Adeboye – You Need Encouragement
Topic: You Need Encouragement [Saturday 10, September 2016]
Memorise: These things I have spoken unto you, that in me ye might have peace. In the world ye shall have tribulation: but be of good cheer; I have overcome the world. – John 16:33
Read: 1 Kings 19:1-6 (KJV)
1 And Ahab told Jezebel all that Elijah had done, and withal how he had slain all the prophets with the sword.
2 Then Jezebel sent a messenger unto Elijah, saying, So let the gods do to me, and more also, if I make not thy life as the life of one of them by to morrow about this time.
3 And when he saw that, he arose, and went for his life, and came to Beersheba, which belongeth to Judah, and left his servant there.
4 But he himself went a day's journey into the wilderness, and came and sat down under a juniper tree: and he requested for himself that he might die; and said, It is enough; now, O LORD, take away my life; for I am not better than my fathers.
5 And as he lay and slept under a juniper tree, behold, then an angel touched him, and said unto him, Arise and eat.
6 And he looked, and, behold, there was a cake baken on the coals, and a cruse of water at his head. And he did eat and drink, and laid him down again.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 33:14-35:19, Psalms 55:1-15
MESSAGE:
Based on human experience, life is generally believed to be hard, laborious, burdensome, and full of sorrow. A combination of several factors may be responsible for the dilemma faced by human beings. First among these factors is recorded in Revelation 12:12:
“…Woe to the inhabiters of the earth and of the sea! for the devil is come down unto you, having great wrath,…”
And 1 Peter 5:8 followed up by saying
“…your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour:”
Furthermore, Genesis 3:17 says,
“…cursed is the ground for thy sake; in sorrow shalt thou eat of it all the days of thy life;”
The implication of these passages on unregenerate human beings is so great that Job 14:1 had to say,
“Man that is born of a woman is of few days, and full of trouble.”
When a higher responsibility such as marriage, parenthood, civil or spiritual leadership is added to the ordinary troubles of life, the result is better imagined than experienced. For the above reasons, every human being needs divine encouragement and support daily. In the Name that is above all other names, beginning from today, you will receive divine support and encouragement to carry on in life in Jesus’ name.
Indeed, God promises continual support for his people, particularly when they become weary, depressed or disillusioned. Several passages of the Bible affirmed God’s encouragement for His children. Moses, Joshua, Abraham, David, kings and prophets of Israel, our fathers and mothers of faith were not abandoned at critical moments in their lives. God was always there to give the required support and encouragement when it mattered most. This could be seen clearly in God’s pronouncement in Isaiah 41:10 that says,
“Fear thou not; for I am with thee: be not dismayed; for I am thy God: I will strengthen thee; yea, I will help thee; yea, I will uphold thee with the right hand of my righteousness.”
However, Bible records show that we have a responsibility to carry out in order to merit God’s encouragement. You must first be born again and make meditation on the Word of God a habit (Joshua 1:8-9). Then you must invite the Holy Spirit who is the counsellor, into your life. Thereafter, you will begin to experience God’s encouragement. Isaiah 40:30-31, says that God’s encouragement brings renewed strength and an ability to do exploit. This is the secret of my success as the General overseer of the RCCG. I enjoy tremendous support and encouragement from the Almighty God always. It is only by His support and encouragement that any man can succeed.
Prayer Point: Father, please encourage and support me so that I may fulfil my destiny in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Memorise: These things I have spoken unto you, that in me ye might have peace. In the world ye shall have tribulation: but be of good cheer; I have overcome the world. – John 16:33
Read: 1 Kings 19:1-6 (KJV)
1 And Ahab told Jezebel all that Elijah had done, and withal how he had slain all the prophets with the sword.
2 Then Jezebel sent a messenger unto Elijah, saying, So let the gods do to me, and more also, if I make not thy life as the life of one of them by to morrow about this time.
3 And when he saw that, he arose, and went for his life, and came to Beersheba, which belongeth to Judah, and left his servant there.
4 But he himself went a day's journey into the wilderness, and came and sat down under a juniper tree: and he requested for himself that he might die; and said, It is enough; now, O LORD, take away my life; for I am not better than my fathers.
5 And as he lay and slept under a juniper tree, behold, then an angel touched him, and said unto him, Arise and eat.
6 And he looked, and, behold, there was a cake baken on the coals, and a cruse of water at his head. And he did eat and drink, and laid him down again.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 33:14-35:19, Psalms 55:1-15
MESSAGE:
Based on human experience, life is generally believed to be hard, laborious, burdensome, and full of sorrow. A combination of several factors may be responsible for the dilemma faced by human beings. First among these factors is recorded in Revelation 12:12:
“…Woe to the inhabiters of the earth and of the sea! for the devil is come down unto you, having great wrath,…”
And 1 Peter 5:8 followed up by saying
“…your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour:”
Furthermore, Genesis 3:17 says,
“…cursed is the ground for thy sake; in sorrow shalt thou eat of it all the days of thy life;”
The implication of these passages on unregenerate human beings is so great that Job 14:1 had to say,
“Man that is born of a woman is of few days, and full of trouble.”
When a higher responsibility such as marriage, parenthood, civil or spiritual leadership is added to the ordinary troubles of life, the result is better imagined than experienced. For the above reasons, every human being needs divine encouragement and support daily. In the Name that is above all other names, beginning from today, you will receive divine support and encouragement to carry on in life in Jesus’ name.
Indeed, God promises continual support for his people, particularly when they become weary, depressed or disillusioned. Several passages of the Bible affirmed God’s encouragement for His children. Moses, Joshua, Abraham, David, kings and prophets of Israel, our fathers and mothers of faith were not abandoned at critical moments in their lives. God was always there to give the required support and encouragement when it mattered most. This could be seen clearly in God’s pronouncement in Isaiah 41:10 that says,
“Fear thou not; for I am with thee: be not dismayed; for I am thy God: I will strengthen thee; yea, I will help thee; yea, I will uphold thee with the right hand of my righteousness.”
However, Bible records show that we have a responsibility to carry out in order to merit God’s encouragement. You must first be born again and make meditation on the Word of God a habit (Joshua 1:8-9). Then you must invite the Holy Spirit who is the counsellor, into your life. Thereafter, you will begin to experience God’s encouragement. Isaiah 40:30-31, says that God’s encouragement brings renewed strength and an ability to do exploit. This is the secret of my success as the General overseer of the RCCG. I enjoy tremendous support and encouragement from the Almighty God always. It is only by His support and encouragement that any man can succeed.
Prayer Point: Father, please encourage and support me so that I may fulfil my destiny in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Friday, 9 September 2016
Open Heavens 9 September 2016: Friday daily devotional by Pastor E. A. Adeboye – Godliness and Contentment
Topic: Godliness and Contentment [Friday 9, September 2016]
Memorise: But godliness with contentment is great gain. – 1 Timothy 6:6
Read: 1 Timothy 6:6-10 (KJV)
1 Let as many servants as are under the yoke count their own masters worthy of all honour, that the name of God and his doctrine be not blasphemed.
2 And they that have believing masters, let them not despise them, because they are brethren; but rather do them service, because they are faithful and beloved, partakers of the benefit. These things teach and exhort.
3 If any man teach otherwise, and consent not to wholesome words, even the words of our Lord Jesus Christ, and to the doctrine which is according to godliness;
4 He is proud, knowing nothing, but doting about questions and strifes of words, whereof cometh envy, strife, railings, evil surmisings,
5 Perverse disputings of men of corrupt minds, and destitute of the truth, supposing that gain is godliness: from such withdraw thyself.
6 But godliness with contentment is great gain.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 32:1-33:13, Psalms 53-54
MESSAGE:
Godliness implies a kind of reverence for or devotion to God which produces a practical awareness of God in every aspect of life. True godliness is a way of life that permeates every aspect of life, from appearances to actions. A godly person cannot help but transmit and radiate godliness in a way that anybody who comes in contact with him or her will immediately feel the presence of God. Consequently, deceptive godliness in speech or action is not compatible with the Word of God. According to 2 Timothy 3:5, apparent godliness may not be genuine; the passage calls it “Having a form of godliness”. Meanwhile Titus 2:11-12 says:
“11 For the grace of God that bringeth salvation hath appeared to all men, 12 Teaching us that, denying ungodliness and worldly lusts, we should live soberly, righteously, and godly, in this present world;”
From the above passage, it is clear that godliness can be interpreted as a measure of the level of sanctification of a child of God. The Bible in a few cases used the term “walking with God” to indicate the level of godliness of some fathers of faith. Examples of godliness in the Bible include Enoch in Genesis 5:24:
“And Enoch walked with God: and he was not; for God took him.”
And Noah in Genesis 6:9:
“….Noah was a just man and perfect in his generations, and Noah walked with God.”
God demanded godliness from Abraham in Genesis 17:1
“…I am the Almighty God; walk before me, and be thou perfect.”
And Abraham in turn confirmed compliance in Genesis 24:40 with the statement
“…The LORD, before whom I walk…”
Other examples of godliness include Simeon in Luke 2:25, Anna in Luke 2:37, and Cornelius in Acts 10:2. Therefore, godliness is mandatory as an evidence of knowing God and being known by Him.
According to 1 Timothy 6:6, godliness should be accompanied by contentment. The Bible teaches that sorrow for sin is a sign of godliness and godly living demands self-discipline. The benefits of godliness cannot be over emphasised, 1 Timothy 4:8 tells us that godliness is profitable unto all things, both in this life and in eternity. Today’s memory verse emphasises that godliness with contentment brings great gain. It is also a sure defence against covetousness and all manners of trials and temptations which is the main source of backsliding and apostasy in the Church of God today. May the Lord have mercy!
Prayer Point: Father, please give me the grace to live above covetousness and greed in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Memorise: But godliness with contentment is great gain. – 1 Timothy 6:6
Read: 1 Timothy 6:6-10 (KJV)
1 Let as many servants as are under the yoke count their own masters worthy of all honour, that the name of God and his doctrine be not blasphemed.
2 And they that have believing masters, let them not despise them, because they are brethren; but rather do them service, because they are faithful and beloved, partakers of the benefit. These things teach and exhort.
3 If any man teach otherwise, and consent not to wholesome words, even the words of our Lord Jesus Christ, and to the doctrine which is according to godliness;
4 He is proud, knowing nothing, but doting about questions and strifes of words, whereof cometh envy, strife, railings, evil surmisings,
5 Perverse disputings of men of corrupt minds, and destitute of the truth, supposing that gain is godliness: from such withdraw thyself.
6 But godliness with contentment is great gain.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 32:1-33:13, Psalms 53-54
MESSAGE:
Godliness implies a kind of reverence for or devotion to God which produces a practical awareness of God in every aspect of life. True godliness is a way of life that permeates every aspect of life, from appearances to actions. A godly person cannot help but transmit and radiate godliness in a way that anybody who comes in contact with him or her will immediately feel the presence of God. Consequently, deceptive godliness in speech or action is not compatible with the Word of God. According to 2 Timothy 3:5, apparent godliness may not be genuine; the passage calls it “Having a form of godliness”. Meanwhile Titus 2:11-12 says:
“11 For the grace of God that bringeth salvation hath appeared to all men, 12 Teaching us that, denying ungodliness and worldly lusts, we should live soberly, righteously, and godly, in this present world;”
From the above passage, it is clear that godliness can be interpreted as a measure of the level of sanctification of a child of God. The Bible in a few cases used the term “walking with God” to indicate the level of godliness of some fathers of faith. Examples of godliness in the Bible include Enoch in Genesis 5:24:
“And Enoch walked with God: and he was not; for God took him.”
And Noah in Genesis 6:9:
“….Noah was a just man and perfect in his generations, and Noah walked with God.”
God demanded godliness from Abraham in Genesis 17:1
“…I am the Almighty God; walk before me, and be thou perfect.”
And Abraham in turn confirmed compliance in Genesis 24:40 with the statement
“…The LORD, before whom I walk…”
Other examples of godliness include Simeon in Luke 2:25, Anna in Luke 2:37, and Cornelius in Acts 10:2. Therefore, godliness is mandatory as an evidence of knowing God and being known by Him.
According to 1 Timothy 6:6, godliness should be accompanied by contentment. The Bible teaches that sorrow for sin is a sign of godliness and godly living demands self-discipline. The benefits of godliness cannot be over emphasised, 1 Timothy 4:8 tells us that godliness is profitable unto all things, both in this life and in eternity. Today’s memory verse emphasises that godliness with contentment brings great gain. It is also a sure defence against covetousness and all manners of trials and temptations which is the main source of backsliding and apostasy in the Church of God today. May the Lord have mercy!
Prayer Point: Father, please give me the grace to live above covetousness and greed in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Barack Obama chides 'wacky' Trump after Putin jibe
Barack Obama has chided Donald Trump as "wacky" and "uninformed" after the Republican candidate said Russia's President Putin was a better leader.
Speaking in Laos, Mr Obama said that every time Mr Trump spoke it became clearer that the Republican contender was not qualified to be president.
In a televised forum on Wednesday, Mr Trump had praised Mr Putin's "great control" and 82% approval rating.
Mr Trump and rival Hillary Clinton had taken questions from military veterans.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37305760
INEC postpones Edo governorship election by 2 weeks
The Independent National Electoral Commission INEC has postponed the Edo State governorship election by two weeks. The spokesman to the INEC Chairman, Rotimi Oyekanmi, confirmed the postponement.
This decision comes hours after the electoral body had insisted it was still going ahed with the Saturday September 10th election despite an advise from the police and the DSS that the election should be postponed due to some security threats.
LIB
This decision comes hours after the electoral body had insisted it was still going ahed with the Saturday September 10th election despite an advise from the police and the DSS that the election should be postponed due to some security threats.
LIB
Thursday, 8 September 2016
Open Heavens 8 September 2016: Thursday daily devotional by Pastor E. A. Adeboye – Do You Need Deliverance?
Topic: Do You Need Deliverance? [Thursday 8, September 2016]
Memorise: And these signs shall follow them that believe; In my name shall they cast out devils; they shall speak with new tongues; – Mark 16:17
Read: James 5:13-15 (KJV)
13 Is any among you afflicted? let him pray. Is any merry? let him sing psalms.
14 Is any sick among you? let him call for the elders of the church; and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord:
15 And the prayer of faith shall save the sick, and the Lord shall raise him up; and if he have committed sins, they shall be forgiven him.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 29:24-31:40, Psalms 52
MESSAGE:
Deliverance implies the rescue or liberation of a person from danger, suffering, bondage and sin. It also indicates freedom from people, forces or circumstances that are overwhelming. Sometimes, deliverance involves the expulsion of an evil spirit or spirits from a person. Deliverance focuses on captives, prisoners of war, slaves, debtors, suspected criminals, deportees, exiles, condemned sinners, and the oppressed. These people are often treated with great cruelty and indignity. Another focus of deliverance includes individuals dominated by the influence of a demon. Deliverance should be taken seriously; many are presently suffering due to ignorance of the influence of the devil in their lives.
Being a victim is especially pathetic because it is quite difficult and practically impossible for anyone in this situation to make any progress in life or be delivered by self-help. Consequently, experiences of stagnancy, failure, fruitlessness, sickness, misfortune, etc., are possible indications that deliverance is required. I prophecy into the life of a user of this devotional that is experiencing any of these evil conditions, you shall be delivered today in Jesus’ name. Incidentally, hope for deliverance is certain because there is a powerful Saviour and Deliverer, His name is Jesus. All power in Heaven and on earth belongs to Him. Every person and circumstance of life is subject to His authority, and demons are powerless before Him. Matthew 17:18 says;
“And Jesus rebuked the devil; and he departed out of him: and the child was cured from that very hour.”
At the Word of Jesus or at the mention of His name by a disciple, demons flew out and people were delivered. Once again, I decree in the name of Jesus, receive deliverance from every form of bondage now. Matthew 10:1 says;
“And when he had called unto him his twelve disciples, he gave them power against unclean spirits, to cast them out, and to heal all manner of sickness and all manner of disease.”
Do you need deliverance of any kind? Accept Jesus as your Lord and Saviour, make every effort to avoid self-destructive behaviours of immorality and sin. Then seek a true disciple of Jesus with delegated power and authority over demons, who will call upon the name of Jesus for your deliverance. Intensive prayers with a word of command will dislodge the stronghold of the enemy in your life today in the name of Jesus.
Prayer Point: Father, please set me free from every bondage of the devil today in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Memorise: And these signs shall follow them that believe; In my name shall they cast out devils; they shall speak with new tongues; – Mark 16:17
Read: James 5:13-15 (KJV)
13 Is any among you afflicted? let him pray. Is any merry? let him sing psalms.
14 Is any sick among you? let him call for the elders of the church; and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord:
15 And the prayer of faith shall save the sick, and the Lord shall raise him up; and if he have committed sins, they shall be forgiven him.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 29:24-31:40, Psalms 52
MESSAGE:
Deliverance implies the rescue or liberation of a person from danger, suffering, bondage and sin. It also indicates freedom from people, forces or circumstances that are overwhelming. Sometimes, deliverance involves the expulsion of an evil spirit or spirits from a person. Deliverance focuses on captives, prisoners of war, slaves, debtors, suspected criminals, deportees, exiles, condemned sinners, and the oppressed. These people are often treated with great cruelty and indignity. Another focus of deliverance includes individuals dominated by the influence of a demon. Deliverance should be taken seriously; many are presently suffering due to ignorance of the influence of the devil in their lives.
Being a victim is especially pathetic because it is quite difficult and practically impossible for anyone in this situation to make any progress in life or be delivered by self-help. Consequently, experiences of stagnancy, failure, fruitlessness, sickness, misfortune, etc., are possible indications that deliverance is required. I prophecy into the life of a user of this devotional that is experiencing any of these evil conditions, you shall be delivered today in Jesus’ name. Incidentally, hope for deliverance is certain because there is a powerful Saviour and Deliverer, His name is Jesus. All power in Heaven and on earth belongs to Him. Every person and circumstance of life is subject to His authority, and demons are powerless before Him. Matthew 17:18 says;
“And Jesus rebuked the devil; and he departed out of him: and the child was cured from that very hour.”
At the Word of Jesus or at the mention of His name by a disciple, demons flew out and people were delivered. Once again, I decree in the name of Jesus, receive deliverance from every form of bondage now. Matthew 10:1 says;
“And when he had called unto him his twelve disciples, he gave them power against unclean spirits, to cast them out, and to heal all manner of sickness and all manner of disease.”
Do you need deliverance of any kind? Accept Jesus as your Lord and Saviour, make every effort to avoid self-destructive behaviours of immorality and sin. Then seek a true disciple of Jesus with delegated power and authority over demons, who will call upon the name of Jesus for your deliverance. Intensive prayers with a word of command will dislodge the stronghold of the enemy in your life today in the name of Jesus.
Prayer Point: Father, please set me free from every bondage of the devil today in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Wednesday, 7 September 2016
Our Daily Bread devotional, September 7, 2016 - She Did What She Could
Topic: She Did What She Could [September 7, 2016]
Read: Mark 14:3–9, Bible in a Year: Proverbs 1–2; 1 Corinthians 16
She did what she could. Mark 14:8
When her friends say thoughtless or outrageous things on social media, Charlotte chimes in with gentle but firm dissent. She respects the dignity of everyone, and her words are unfailingly positive.
A few years ago she became Facebook friends with a man who harbored anger toward Christians. He appreciated Charlotte’s rare honesty and grace. Over time his hostility melted. Then Charlotte suffered a bad fall. Now housebound, she fretted over what she could do. About that time her Facebook friend died and then this message arrived from his sister: “[Because of your witness] I know he’s now experiencing God’s complete and abiding love for him.”
During the week in which Christ would be killed, Mary of Bethany anointed Him with expensive perfume (John 12:3; Mark 14:3). Some of those present were appalled, but Jesus applauded her. “She has done a beautiful thing to me,” He said. “She did what she could. She poured perfume on my body beforehand to prepare for my burial” (Mark 14:6–8).
“She did what she could.” Christ’s words take the pressure off. Our world is full of broken, hurting people. But we don’t have to worry about what we can’t do. Charlotte did what she could. So can we. The rest is in His capable hands.
Prayer: Lord, help us not to define our self-worth by what we do for You, but by what You have done for us. Show us how we can show Your love to others.
This message was written by Tim Gustafson [Our Daily Bread Ministries.]
Read: Mark 14:3–9, Bible in a Year: Proverbs 1–2; 1 Corinthians 16
She did what she could. Mark 14:8
When her friends say thoughtless or outrageous things on social media, Charlotte chimes in with gentle but firm dissent. She respects the dignity of everyone, and her words are unfailingly positive.
A few years ago she became Facebook friends with a man who harbored anger toward Christians. He appreciated Charlotte’s rare honesty and grace. Over time his hostility melted. Then Charlotte suffered a bad fall. Now housebound, she fretted over what she could do. About that time her Facebook friend died and then this message arrived from his sister: “[Because of your witness] I know he’s now experiencing God’s complete and abiding love for him.”
During the week in which Christ would be killed, Mary of Bethany anointed Him with expensive perfume (John 12:3; Mark 14:3). Some of those present were appalled, but Jesus applauded her. “She has done a beautiful thing to me,” He said. “She did what she could. She poured perfume on my body beforehand to prepare for my burial” (Mark 14:6–8).
“She did what she could.” Christ’s words take the pressure off. Our world is full of broken, hurting people. But we don’t have to worry about what we can’t do. Charlotte did what she could. So can we. The rest is in His capable hands.
Prayer: Lord, help us not to define our self-worth by what we do for You, but by what You have done for us. Show us how we can show Your love to others.
This message was written by Tim Gustafson [Our Daily Bread Ministries.]
Open Heavens 7 September 2016: Wednesday daily devotional by Pastor E. A. Adeboye – He Shall Surely Return
Topic: He Shall Surely Return [Wednesday 7, September 2016]
Memorise: Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.– Acts 1:11
Read: Acts 1:8-11 (KJV)
8 But ye shall receive power, after that the Holy Ghost is come upon you: and ye shall be witnesses unto me both in Jerusalem, and in all Judaea, and in Samaria, and unto the uttermost part of the earth.
9 And when he had spoken these things, while they beheld, he was taken up; and a cloud received him out of their sight.
10 And while they looked stedfastly toward heaven as he went up, behold, two men stood by them in white apparel;
11 Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 27:1-29:23, Psalms 51
MESSAGE:
One of the chief messages of the Bible is that Jesus Christ will return visibly and in glory at the end of history. First to raise the dead, judge the world, and then destroy all evil and opposition to God. He will thereafter consummate His kingdom. Christians are encouraged to be prepared for the second coming of Jesus Christ with eagerness and joy. Several passages of the Old Testament Bible predicted the second coming of Jesus, Daniel 7:13-14 says:
“13…one like the Son of man came with the clouds of heaven… 14 And there was given him dominion, and glory, and a kingdom, that all people, nations, and languages, should serve him: his dominion is an everlasting dominion, which shall not pass away, and his kingdom that which shall not be destroyed.”
Also, several passages of the New Testament Bible foretold the second coming of Jesus. In Acts 1:11, two angels announced the second coming of Christ by saying:
“…Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? This same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.”
However, because at least two thousand years have passed without the actual fulfilment of this prophecy, unbelievers and Christians alike are beginning to doubt the reality or possibility of rapture or the second coming of Jesus Christ. Brethren, do not be deceived, JESUS IS COMING BACK AGAIN. This truth is very important to the continued relevance of the Church of God in general and that of the Redeemed Christian Church of God in particular. Focusing on the second coming of Jesus Christ should be our duty, in order to realign the worldview and mindset of Christians and unbelievers alike with the Word of God. The matter is settled in Heaven and the earth has witnessed the fulfilment of almost all the signs of the end time as recorded in the Word of God.
We are witnesses to the increased knowledge, false prophets, wars and rumours of wars, famines, and earthquakes, the re-gathering of the nation of Israel, man’s inhumanity to man extreme wickedness, and diverse forms of immorality. The second coming of Jesus will occur unexpectedly at God’s appointed time. Be warned, be watchful and be ready.
Prayer Point: Father, please give me the grace not to get weary while waiting for Your second coming in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Memorise: Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.– Acts 1:11
Read: Acts 1:8-11 (KJV)
8 But ye shall receive power, after that the Holy Ghost is come upon you: and ye shall be witnesses unto me both in Jerusalem, and in all Judaea, and in Samaria, and unto the uttermost part of the earth.
9 And when he had spoken these things, while they beheld, he was taken up; and a cloud received him out of their sight.
10 And while they looked stedfastly toward heaven as he went up, behold, two men stood by them in white apparel;
11 Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 27:1-29:23, Psalms 51
MESSAGE:
One of the chief messages of the Bible is that Jesus Christ will return visibly and in glory at the end of history. First to raise the dead, judge the world, and then destroy all evil and opposition to God. He will thereafter consummate His kingdom. Christians are encouraged to be prepared for the second coming of Jesus Christ with eagerness and joy. Several passages of the Old Testament Bible predicted the second coming of Jesus, Daniel 7:13-14 says:
“13…one like the Son of man came with the clouds of heaven… 14 And there was given him dominion, and glory, and a kingdom, that all people, nations, and languages, should serve him: his dominion is an everlasting dominion, which shall not pass away, and his kingdom that which shall not be destroyed.”
Also, several passages of the New Testament Bible foretold the second coming of Jesus. In Acts 1:11, two angels announced the second coming of Christ by saying:
“…Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? This same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.”
However, because at least two thousand years have passed without the actual fulfilment of this prophecy, unbelievers and Christians alike are beginning to doubt the reality or possibility of rapture or the second coming of Jesus Christ. Brethren, do not be deceived, JESUS IS COMING BACK AGAIN. This truth is very important to the continued relevance of the Church of God in general and that of the Redeemed Christian Church of God in particular. Focusing on the second coming of Jesus Christ should be our duty, in order to realign the worldview and mindset of Christians and unbelievers alike with the Word of God. The matter is settled in Heaven and the earth has witnessed the fulfilment of almost all the signs of the end time as recorded in the Word of God.
We are witnesses to the increased knowledge, false prophets, wars and rumours of wars, famines, and earthquakes, the re-gathering of the nation of Israel, man’s inhumanity to man extreme wickedness, and diverse forms of immorality. The second coming of Jesus will occur unexpectedly at God’s appointed time. Be warned, be watchful and be ready.
Prayer Point: Father, please give me the grace not to get weary while waiting for Your second coming in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Tuesday, 6 September 2016
This devaluation ‘be like’ 419!
By Henry Boyo
The IMF and other respectable international financial agencies and local economic experts have commended the recent devaluation via a floating naira exchange rate, as an ‘investment’ that would ultimately yield great dividends. We are encouraged to believe that the new forex regime will recharge our economy and sustain inclusive growth with increasing job opportunities, and also reduce our almost total dependence on crude oil, by facilitating the actualisation of a diversified economy.
It is also suggested that devaluation will create a level playing ground to attract investors to build more refineries and similarly, immediately encourage marketers to import fuel to reduce the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s present monopoly.
Nonetheless, the promise that the new policy would attract the much needed forex inflow is probably the most notable claim by supporters of a much weaker naira. Consequently, the Central Bank of Nigeria trusts that the estimated $10bn-$15bn hurriedly evacuated from Nigeria, when oil prices slumped, will be channelled back by foreign portfolio investors. Sadly, however, the present level of uncertainty and insecurity induced by our socio-economic tensions may not encourage a quick return of such hot money, for now.
Traditionally, portfolio investors primarily target the exceptionally high returns on the CBN and the Federal Government’s loans. Thus, such investors may borrow at lower rates, below five per cent from offshore banks and reap a net harvest of 10 per cent plus in Nigeria, even when the proceeds from these loans are not socially impactful.
Unfortunately, the clearly elevated level of insecurity and naira rate instability may also deter potential ‘foreign direct investors’, whose operations invariably add value to our industries and infrastructure while supportively creating more jobs. Thus, the sharp naira depreciation with a floating exchange rate may not immediately propel the expected return of over $10bn earlier scrambled away from Nigeria. Consequently, it is clearly misleading to insist that a bountiful inflow of dollars will soon stabilise the exchange rate, as often speculated by some experts.
Incidentally, barely eight hours after the commencement of the new forex floating rate, the cost of its ‘yet to be realised speculated ‘regenerative’ benefits’, had already made horrendous dents on our economy. For a start, Nigeria’s erstwhile celebrated $510bn Gross Domestic Product, immediately crashed below $350bn, while per capita income crashed from over $1000 to well below $600 to deepen mass poverty. In addition, the dollar value of all equity listed on the Nigeria Stock market also plunged from almost $48bn on Friday, June 17 to below $25bn on Monday, June 20.
Invariably, all asset values denominated in naira, also immediately fell below 60 per cent of their dollar purchasing values overnight! Similarly, the equally celebrated $25bn plus accumulated national pension funds lost over $10bn, just like that, to imperil the future welfare of our senior citizens.
Furthermore, all outstanding dollar denominated loans will henceforth also require almost 50 per cent more naira to service and repay, while additional assets will be demanded to supplement existing collaterals. Consequently, widespread default on foreign loans and outstanding import bills will be common. Thus, billions of dollars credit lines, which hitherto supportively restrained the cost of raw materials imports to local industries, may also be cut to further instigate higher operational costs which will also challenge the export competitiveness of Nigeria’s real sector.
The naira value of all external public sector debt obligations will similarly increase and raise the ratio between annual debt service charges and total actual income well beyond the precarious level of N35 on every N100 revenue. Worse still, if the 2016 budget deficit of N2tn is additionally captured, we may ultimately need to allocate over 50 per cent of earned revenue annually to service our national debts in the near future!
Although the NNPC management has remained unexpectedly reticent on the impact of the new forex policy on fuel prices, however, the pump price of petrol cannot remain at the pegged price of N145/litre, if crude price remains steady above $45/barrel and the naira exchanges for N280=$1 or more. Indeed, unless the NNPC accommodates a new round of subsidies, petrol price will exceed N200/litre.
Nevertheless, since budget 2016 made no provision for subsidy, a deregulated price regime based on a floating exchange rate will certainly spike petrol price and correspondingly propel inflation well above 20 per cent to reduce consumer demand while conversely raising the cost of funds, with a collateral adverse impact on investments and job creation.
In addition, the recently established electricity tariff structure, earlier predicated on N197=$1, will become unsustainable, and a further hike in electricity tariff will be inevitable.
Sadly the celebrated 30 per cent 2016 capital budget will also suffer, as the significant import components usually required for infrastructure may now require an additional loan of N300bn or more to fully implement. Consequently, public expectation for urgent infrastructural remediation will sadly remain on hold.
Regrettably, our desire to diversify economy away from crude oil will also become severely challenged by increasingly irrepressible production cost, which will invariably sustain inflation well beyond the current 16 per cent. The CBN will therefore be compelled to raise monetary policy rate to levels that will push cost of funds well above 30 per cent, to unwittingly make import substitutes more competitive. Ultimately, real sector operations will become crippled and any hope of economic diversification will gradually fade.
On the security front, the fiscal allocations voted to increase the capacity of the security agencies, will become inadequate and require additional appropriation to implement. Sadly, however, our presently parlous financial state will obviously make such supplementary allocation a challenge, unless we further deepen an already oppressive debt burden.
In truth, we were all literally cut to size with a stroke of the pen by government’s precipitate approval of the new forex policy. Invariably, any offshore expenditure we all make hereafter will require almost 50 per cent more naira to fund. Ultimately, the question must be why we readily surrendered a pound of our flesh in return for a platter of clearly unrealistic promises and benefits, just like a gullible victim of a 419 scam.”
The above article was first published soon after the CBN’s decision to float naira exchange rate in June 2016. Ironically, Nigerians immediately lost over $30bn from the grossly depreciated international currency value of stock market capitalisation and the national pension funds in the hope of attracting an uncertain $15bn from characteristically predatory, nimble footed foreign portfolio investors! Sadly, these values will increase as the naira exchange rate plunges below N300=$1.
However, two months after the naira float, the National Bureau of Statistics has expectedly confirmed that Nigeria’s economy had indeed recorded unyielding negative growth rates between January-June 2016. Thus, in place of growth, the unfortunate reality is that the wheels of the economy were, sadly, already actually in a reverse gear during the period preceding the odious devaluation, which inadvertently further spiked the prices of most goods and services well beyond the levels which existed before the naira crash.
Invariably, an inflationary pressure will subsist for the rest of 2016 while the collateral of higher MPR and cost of funds, rising poisonously beyond 30 per cent will dampen any hope of early economic recovery and certainly restrain the creation of more job opportunities. See also, “Economy: The flood gates have been breached”, published on June 20, 2016 at www.lesleba.com.
Sadly, any frenzied attempt to stimulate spending and regenerate the economy with selected sectoral cash interventions, may also ironically challenge the CBN’s attempt to restrain inflation in a market that is already threatened by the unusual burden of persistent excess naira liquidity. Consequently, if the naira exchange rate also continues to slide, it will certainly be a miracle for the CBN to achieve its prime mandate for price stability.
- Henry Boyo
The IMF and other respectable international financial agencies and local economic experts have commended the recent devaluation via a floating naira exchange rate, as an ‘investment’ that would ultimately yield great dividends. We are encouraged to believe that the new forex regime will recharge our economy and sustain inclusive growth with increasing job opportunities, and also reduce our almost total dependence on crude oil, by facilitating the actualisation of a diversified economy.
It is also suggested that devaluation will create a level playing ground to attract investors to build more refineries and similarly, immediately encourage marketers to import fuel to reduce the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s present monopoly.
Nonetheless, the promise that the new policy would attract the much needed forex inflow is probably the most notable claim by supporters of a much weaker naira. Consequently, the Central Bank of Nigeria trusts that the estimated $10bn-$15bn hurriedly evacuated from Nigeria, when oil prices slumped, will be channelled back by foreign portfolio investors. Sadly, however, the present level of uncertainty and insecurity induced by our socio-economic tensions may not encourage a quick return of such hot money, for now.
Traditionally, portfolio investors primarily target the exceptionally high returns on the CBN and the Federal Government’s loans. Thus, such investors may borrow at lower rates, below five per cent from offshore banks and reap a net harvest of 10 per cent plus in Nigeria, even when the proceeds from these loans are not socially impactful.
Unfortunately, the clearly elevated level of insecurity and naira rate instability may also deter potential ‘foreign direct investors’, whose operations invariably add value to our industries and infrastructure while supportively creating more jobs. Thus, the sharp naira depreciation with a floating exchange rate may not immediately propel the expected return of over $10bn earlier scrambled away from Nigeria. Consequently, it is clearly misleading to insist that a bountiful inflow of dollars will soon stabilise the exchange rate, as often speculated by some experts.
Incidentally, barely eight hours after the commencement of the new forex floating rate, the cost of its ‘yet to be realised speculated ‘regenerative’ benefits’, had already made horrendous dents on our economy. For a start, Nigeria’s erstwhile celebrated $510bn Gross Domestic Product, immediately crashed below $350bn, while per capita income crashed from over $1000 to well below $600 to deepen mass poverty. In addition, the dollar value of all equity listed on the Nigeria Stock market also plunged from almost $48bn on Friday, June 17 to below $25bn on Monday, June 20.
Invariably, all asset values denominated in naira, also immediately fell below 60 per cent of their dollar purchasing values overnight! Similarly, the equally celebrated $25bn plus accumulated national pension funds lost over $10bn, just like that, to imperil the future welfare of our senior citizens.
Furthermore, all outstanding dollar denominated loans will henceforth also require almost 50 per cent more naira to service and repay, while additional assets will be demanded to supplement existing collaterals. Consequently, widespread default on foreign loans and outstanding import bills will be common. Thus, billions of dollars credit lines, which hitherto supportively restrained the cost of raw materials imports to local industries, may also be cut to further instigate higher operational costs which will also challenge the export competitiveness of Nigeria’s real sector.
The naira value of all external public sector debt obligations will similarly increase and raise the ratio between annual debt service charges and total actual income well beyond the precarious level of N35 on every N100 revenue. Worse still, if the 2016 budget deficit of N2tn is additionally captured, we may ultimately need to allocate over 50 per cent of earned revenue annually to service our national debts in the near future!
Although the NNPC management has remained unexpectedly reticent on the impact of the new forex policy on fuel prices, however, the pump price of petrol cannot remain at the pegged price of N145/litre, if crude price remains steady above $45/barrel and the naira exchanges for N280=$1 or more. Indeed, unless the NNPC accommodates a new round of subsidies, petrol price will exceed N200/litre.
Nevertheless, since budget 2016 made no provision for subsidy, a deregulated price regime based on a floating exchange rate will certainly spike petrol price and correspondingly propel inflation well above 20 per cent to reduce consumer demand while conversely raising the cost of funds, with a collateral adverse impact on investments and job creation.
In addition, the recently established electricity tariff structure, earlier predicated on N197=$1, will become unsustainable, and a further hike in electricity tariff will be inevitable.
Sadly the celebrated 30 per cent 2016 capital budget will also suffer, as the significant import components usually required for infrastructure may now require an additional loan of N300bn or more to fully implement. Consequently, public expectation for urgent infrastructural remediation will sadly remain on hold.
Regrettably, our desire to diversify economy away from crude oil will also become severely challenged by increasingly irrepressible production cost, which will invariably sustain inflation well beyond the current 16 per cent. The CBN will therefore be compelled to raise monetary policy rate to levels that will push cost of funds well above 30 per cent, to unwittingly make import substitutes more competitive. Ultimately, real sector operations will become crippled and any hope of economic diversification will gradually fade.
On the security front, the fiscal allocations voted to increase the capacity of the security agencies, will become inadequate and require additional appropriation to implement. Sadly, however, our presently parlous financial state will obviously make such supplementary allocation a challenge, unless we further deepen an already oppressive debt burden.
In truth, we were all literally cut to size with a stroke of the pen by government’s precipitate approval of the new forex policy. Invariably, any offshore expenditure we all make hereafter will require almost 50 per cent more naira to fund. Ultimately, the question must be why we readily surrendered a pound of our flesh in return for a platter of clearly unrealistic promises and benefits, just like a gullible victim of a 419 scam.”
The above article was first published soon after the CBN’s decision to float naira exchange rate in June 2016. Ironically, Nigerians immediately lost over $30bn from the grossly depreciated international currency value of stock market capitalisation and the national pension funds in the hope of attracting an uncertain $15bn from characteristically predatory, nimble footed foreign portfolio investors! Sadly, these values will increase as the naira exchange rate plunges below N300=$1.
However, two months after the naira float, the National Bureau of Statistics has expectedly confirmed that Nigeria’s economy had indeed recorded unyielding negative growth rates between January-June 2016. Thus, in place of growth, the unfortunate reality is that the wheels of the economy were, sadly, already actually in a reverse gear during the period preceding the odious devaluation, which inadvertently further spiked the prices of most goods and services well beyond the levels which existed before the naira crash.
Invariably, an inflationary pressure will subsist for the rest of 2016 while the collateral of higher MPR and cost of funds, rising poisonously beyond 30 per cent will dampen any hope of early economic recovery and certainly restrain the creation of more job opportunities. See also, “Economy: The flood gates have been breached”, published on June 20, 2016 at www.lesleba.com.
Sadly, any frenzied attempt to stimulate spending and regenerate the economy with selected sectoral cash interventions, may also ironically challenge the CBN’s attempt to restrain inflation in a market that is already threatened by the unusual burden of persistent excess naira liquidity. Consequently, if the naira exchange rate also continues to slide, it will certainly be a miracle for the CBN to achieve its prime mandate for price stability.
- Henry Boyo
Open Heavens 6 September 2016: Tuesday daily devotional by Pastor E. A. Adeboye – The Lord is in Charge
Topic: The Lord is in Charge [Tuesday 6, September 2016]
Memorise: The king shall joy in thy strength, O LORD; and in thy salvation how greatly shall he rejoice! – Psalms 21:1
Read: Daniel 4:30-35 (KJV)
30 The king spake, and said, Is not this great Babylon, that I have built for the house of the kingdom by the might of my power, and for the honour of my majesty?
31 While the word was in the king's mouth, there fell a voice from heaven, saying, O king Nebuchadnezzar, to thee it is spoken; The kingdom is departed from thee.
32 And they shall drive thee from men, and thy dwelling shall be with the beasts of the field: they shall make thee to eat grass as oxen, and seven times shall pass over thee, until thou know that the most High ruleth in the kingdom of men, and giveth it to whomsoever he will.
33 The same hour was the thing fulfilled upon Nebuchadnezzar: and he was driven from men, and did eat grass as oxen, and his body was wet with the dew of heaven, till his hairs were grown like eagles' feathers, and his nails like birds' claws.
34 And at the end of the days I Nebuchadnezzar lifted up mine eyes unto heaven, and mine understanding returned unto me, and I blessed the most High, and I praised and honoured him that liveth for ever, whose dominion is an everlasting dominion, and his kingdom is from generation to generation:
35 And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and he doeth according to his will in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay his hand, or say unto him, What doest thou?
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 25-26, Psalms 50:16-23
MESSAGE:
To be in charge or in control is the exercise of authority and restraint over individuals, events, situations, or circumstances of life. The Bible stresses the fact that God is sovereign over all creation; He has absolute authority and control over everything in Heaven and on earth. But a limited degree of control over creation is delegated to humanity. However, man has gained tremendous knowledge of the universe over time and this has translated to an increase level of authority and control over situations and circumstances in life. Man has acquired advanced knowledge in computer science, geography, medicine, mathematics, genetic engineering, archaeology, and space technology, to mention but few. As a result of these achievements, humanity has wrongly assumed that they are the master of the universe and therefore in ultimate charge.
Contrary to this human belief, the Bible teaches that God controls the affairs of Heaven and earth. Deuteronomy 4:39 says:
“Know therefore this day, and consider it in thine heart, that the LORD he is God in heaven above, and upon the earth beneath: there is none else.”
Also, Daniel 4:35 says;
“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and he doeth according to his will in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay his hand, or say unto him, What doest thou?”
From these passages, it is clear that God is unquestionable; He does as He pleases in the distribution of His mercies, blessings, and favour. He gives strength, He makes great, He promotes, He gives knowledge and wisdom, all at His pleasure.
The Lord controls human hearts, He controls time and seasons, He removes kings and sets up others in their place. He controls the weather and fixes human destiny (Daniel 2:22). He is the source of every creation, the Fountain of life, the Channel of goodness from whom all blessings flow. All hail the true Master of the universe, the Redeemer of human kind and the Saviour of the whole world. Matthew 25:34 says:
“Then shall the King say unto them on his right hand, Come, ye blessed of my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world:”
Prayer Point: Father, please silence every opposition to your authority as the master of the universe in my life in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Memorise: The king shall joy in thy strength, O LORD; and in thy salvation how greatly shall he rejoice! – Psalms 21:1
Read: Daniel 4:30-35 (KJV)
30 The king spake, and said, Is not this great Babylon, that I have built for the house of the kingdom by the might of my power, and for the honour of my majesty?
31 While the word was in the king's mouth, there fell a voice from heaven, saying, O king Nebuchadnezzar, to thee it is spoken; The kingdom is departed from thee.
32 And they shall drive thee from men, and thy dwelling shall be with the beasts of the field: they shall make thee to eat grass as oxen, and seven times shall pass over thee, until thou know that the most High ruleth in the kingdom of men, and giveth it to whomsoever he will.
33 The same hour was the thing fulfilled upon Nebuchadnezzar: and he was driven from men, and did eat grass as oxen, and his body was wet with the dew of heaven, till his hairs were grown like eagles' feathers, and his nails like birds' claws.
34 And at the end of the days I Nebuchadnezzar lifted up mine eyes unto heaven, and mine understanding returned unto me, and I blessed the most High, and I praised and honoured him that liveth for ever, whose dominion is an everlasting dominion, and his kingdom is from generation to generation:
35 And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and he doeth according to his will in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay his hand, or say unto him, What doest thou?
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 25-26, Psalms 50:16-23
MESSAGE:
To be in charge or in control is the exercise of authority and restraint over individuals, events, situations, or circumstances of life. The Bible stresses the fact that God is sovereign over all creation; He has absolute authority and control over everything in Heaven and on earth. But a limited degree of control over creation is delegated to humanity. However, man has gained tremendous knowledge of the universe over time and this has translated to an increase level of authority and control over situations and circumstances in life. Man has acquired advanced knowledge in computer science, geography, medicine, mathematics, genetic engineering, archaeology, and space technology, to mention but few. As a result of these achievements, humanity has wrongly assumed that they are the master of the universe and therefore in ultimate charge.
Contrary to this human belief, the Bible teaches that God controls the affairs of Heaven and earth. Deuteronomy 4:39 says:
“Know therefore this day, and consider it in thine heart, that the LORD he is God in heaven above, and upon the earth beneath: there is none else.”
Also, Daniel 4:35 says;
“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and he doeth according to his will in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay his hand, or say unto him, What doest thou?”
From these passages, it is clear that God is unquestionable; He does as He pleases in the distribution of His mercies, blessings, and favour. He gives strength, He makes great, He promotes, He gives knowledge and wisdom, all at His pleasure.
The Lord controls human hearts, He controls time and seasons, He removes kings and sets up others in their place. He controls the weather and fixes human destiny (Daniel 2:22). He is the source of every creation, the Fountain of life, the Channel of goodness from whom all blessings flow. All hail the true Master of the universe, the Redeemer of human kind and the Saviour of the whole world. Matthew 25:34 says:
“Then shall the King say unto them on his right hand, Come, ye blessed of my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world:”
Prayer Point: Father, please silence every opposition to your authority as the master of the universe in my life in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Monday, 5 September 2016
Winning Wisdom: Satan Doesn't Know Your Destiny
Topic: Satan Doesn't Know Your Destiny [5/9/2016]
Text: 1 Corinthians 2:6-8
Have you ever had the feeling that Satan knows your future and the beautiful destiny God has for you, and that is why he is doing all he can to make you fail in life? Well, that feeling is not the truth. It's just Satan giving you a chill to make you apprehensive, and make you think that he is all-knowing. Satan is a spirit who is just only wiser than the natural man. And like the natural man, he can only guess or forecast what the future will be, by using present and past indices and antecedence. He does not know the truth about the future. Only God knows your destiny, because He only is Omniscient.
Your destiny can only be revealed by God and when God does reveal it, it is to gods - you and I. (1 Corinthians 2:9-10). If Satan knew that Jesus' death will lead to the salvation of men, he would never have attempted killing him. None of the princes of this world knew about Jesus' destiny and even Satan, who is the head of the princes of this world, never knew (John 14:30). "For had they known it, they would not have crucified the Lord of glory." (1 Corinthians 2:8).
Satan cannot stop you from fulfilling your destiny. All he has been doing and will still do will only aid you fulfill your destiny. Just like he thought killing Jesus will stop him from being the Saviour of the world, he is still thinking that bringing challenges your way will stop you from fulfilling purpose. But it is written concerning you, "and we know that ALL THINGS work together for good to them that LOVE GOD, to them who are the called ACCORDING TO HIS PURPOSE" (Romans 8:28). Satan is not a militating factor in your destiny, because he knows nothing about it.
Keep winning daily.
Prayer:
Dear Lord, thank You for keeping the details of my life away from Satan. Now I know that all he is doing is to aid me to fulfill destiny. I live in this light, unafraid of whatever he brings my way, because I know it is all working together for my good, in Jesus' name. Amen.
#Prophecy23.9.16 #SapeleCity
By Ese Ehimare Dave
Text: 1 Corinthians 2:6-8
Have you ever had the feeling that Satan knows your future and the beautiful destiny God has for you, and that is why he is doing all he can to make you fail in life? Well, that feeling is not the truth. It's just Satan giving you a chill to make you apprehensive, and make you think that he is all-knowing. Satan is a spirit who is just only wiser than the natural man. And like the natural man, he can only guess or forecast what the future will be, by using present and past indices and antecedence. He does not know the truth about the future. Only God knows your destiny, because He only is Omniscient.
Your destiny can only be revealed by God and when God does reveal it, it is to gods - you and I. (1 Corinthians 2:9-10). If Satan knew that Jesus' death will lead to the salvation of men, he would never have attempted killing him. None of the princes of this world knew about Jesus' destiny and even Satan, who is the head of the princes of this world, never knew (John 14:30). "For had they known it, they would not have crucified the Lord of glory." (1 Corinthians 2:8).
Satan cannot stop you from fulfilling your destiny. All he has been doing and will still do will only aid you fulfill your destiny. Just like he thought killing Jesus will stop him from being the Saviour of the world, he is still thinking that bringing challenges your way will stop you from fulfilling purpose. But it is written concerning you, "and we know that ALL THINGS work together for good to them that LOVE GOD, to them who are the called ACCORDING TO HIS PURPOSE" (Romans 8:28). Satan is not a militating factor in your destiny, because he knows nothing about it.
Keep winning daily.
Prayer:
Dear Lord, thank You for keeping the details of my life away from Satan. Now I know that all he is doing is to aid me to fulfill destiny. I live in this light, unafraid of whatever he brings my way, because I know it is all working together for my good, in Jesus' name. Amen.
#Prophecy23.9.16 #SapeleCity
By Ese Ehimare Dave
Open Heavens 7 September 2016: Wednesday daily devotional by Pastor E. A. Adeboye – He Shall Surely Return
Topic: He Shall Surely Return [Wednesday 7, September 2016]
Memorise: Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.– Acts 1:11
Read: Acts 1:8-11 (KJV)
8 But ye shall receive power, after that the Holy Ghost is come upon you: and ye shall be witnesses unto me both in Jerusalem, and in all Judaea, and in Samaria, and unto the uttermost part of the earth.
9 And when he had spoken these things, while they beheld, he was taken up; and a cloud received him out of their sight.
10 And while they looked stedfastly toward heaven as he went up, behold, two men stood by them in white apparel;
11 Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 27:1-29:23, Psalms 51
MESSAGE:
One of the chief messages of the Bible is that Jesus Christ will return visibly and in glory at the end of history. First to raise the dead, judge the world, and then destroy all evil and opposition to God. He will thereafter consummate His kingdom. Christians are encouraged to be prepared for the second coming of Jesus Christ with eagerness and joy. Several passages of the Old Testament Bible predicted the second coming of Jesus, Daniel 7:13-14 says:
“13…one like the Son of man came with the clouds of heaven… 14 And there was given him dominion, and glory, and a kingdom, that all people, nations, and languages, should serve him: his dominion is an everlasting dominion, which shall not pass away, and his kingdom that which shall not be destroyed.”
Also, several passages of the New Testament Bible foretold the second coming of Jesus. In Acts 1:11, two angels announced the second coming of Christ by saying:
“…Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? This same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.”
However, because at least two thousand years have passed without the actual fulfilment of this prophecy, unbelievers and Christians alike are beginning to doubt the reality or possibility of rapture or the second coming of Jesus Christ. Brethren, do not be deceived, JESUS IS COMING BACK AGAIN. This truth is very important to the continued relevance of the Church of God in general and that of the Redeemed Christian Church of God in particular. Focusing on the second coming of Jesus Christ should be our duty, in order to realign the worldview and mindset of Christians and unbelievers alike with the Word of God. The matter is settled in Heaven and the earth has witnessed the fulfilment of almost all the signs of the end time as recorded in the Word of God.
We are witnesses to the increased knowledge, false prophets, wars and rumours of wars, famines, and earthquakes, the re-gathering of the nation of Israel, man’s inhumanity to man extreme wickedness, and diverse forms of immorality. The second coming of Jesus will occur unexpectedly at God’s appointed time. Be warned, be watchful and be ready.
Prayer Point: Father, please give me the grace not to get weary while waiting for Your second coming in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Memorise: Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.– Acts 1:11
Read: Acts 1:8-11 (KJV)
8 But ye shall receive power, after that the Holy Ghost is come upon you: and ye shall be witnesses unto me both in Jerusalem, and in all Judaea, and in Samaria, and unto the uttermost part of the earth.
9 And when he had spoken these things, while they beheld, he was taken up; and a cloud received him out of their sight.
10 And while they looked stedfastly toward heaven as he went up, behold, two men stood by them in white apparel;
11 Which also said, Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? this same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 27:1-29:23, Psalms 51
MESSAGE:
One of the chief messages of the Bible is that Jesus Christ will return visibly and in glory at the end of history. First to raise the dead, judge the world, and then destroy all evil and opposition to God. He will thereafter consummate His kingdom. Christians are encouraged to be prepared for the second coming of Jesus Christ with eagerness and joy. Several passages of the Old Testament Bible predicted the second coming of Jesus, Daniel 7:13-14 says:
“13…one like the Son of man came with the clouds of heaven… 14 And there was given him dominion, and glory, and a kingdom, that all people, nations, and languages, should serve him: his dominion is an everlasting dominion, which shall not pass away, and his kingdom that which shall not be destroyed.”
Also, several passages of the New Testament Bible foretold the second coming of Jesus. In Acts 1:11, two angels announced the second coming of Christ by saying:
“…Ye men of Galilee, why stand ye gazing up into heaven? This same Jesus, which is taken up from you into heaven, shall so come in like manner as ye have seen him go into heaven.”
However, because at least two thousand years have passed without the actual fulfilment of this prophecy, unbelievers and Christians alike are beginning to doubt the reality or possibility of rapture or the second coming of Jesus Christ. Brethren, do not be deceived, JESUS IS COMING BACK AGAIN. This truth is very important to the continued relevance of the Church of God in general and that of the Redeemed Christian Church of God in particular. Focusing on the second coming of Jesus Christ should be our duty, in order to realign the worldview and mindset of Christians and unbelievers alike with the Word of God. The matter is settled in Heaven and the earth has witnessed the fulfilment of almost all the signs of the end time as recorded in the Word of God.
We are witnesses to the increased knowledge, false prophets, wars and rumours of wars, famines, and earthquakes, the re-gathering of the nation of Israel, man’s inhumanity to man extreme wickedness, and diverse forms of immorality. The second coming of Jesus will occur unexpectedly at God’s appointed time. Be warned, be watchful and be ready.
Prayer Point: Father, please give me the grace not to get weary while waiting for Your second coming in Jesus’ name.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Open Heavens 5 September 2016: Monday daily devotional by Pastor E. A. Adeboye – The Good side of Wealth
Topic: The Good side of Wealth [Monday 5, September 2016]
Memorise: The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender. – Proverbs 22:7
Read: 1 Chronicles 4:9-10 (KJV)
9 And Jabez was more honourable than his brethren: and his mother called his name Jabez, saying, Because I bare him with sorrow.
10 And Jabez called on the God of Israel, saying, Oh that thou wouldest bless me indeed, and enlarge my coast, and that thine hand might be with me, and that thou wouldest keep me from evil, that it may not grieve me! And God granted him that which he requested.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 22:11-24:10, Psalms 50:1-15
MESSAGE:
Wealth is generally interpreted as the abundance of goods or money. However, Biblical reference to wealth is always within the framework of economic, social, cultural, spiritual and political settings of the people. Therefore, terms such as ‘rich’ and ‘poor’ are relative to the context in which they are used in the Bible. Wealth is mostly attached to people or nations but the Bible also mentioned wealthy individuals such as Abraham, Job, David, Solomon, the Queen of Sheba, etc. The New Testament Bible occasionally mentioned wealthy individuals such as Joseph of Arimathaea, the rich man in Luke 16:1, Cornelius in Acts 10, Prisca and Aquila, etc.
However, positive references to wealth are few in the Bible; references to personal wealth almost always carries some negative implication. Many statements of Jesus could be viewed as unfair criticisms of wealth. In Mark 10:23-25, He said it is extremely difficult for a rich person to enter the kingdom of God. In Mark 4:19, He said the quest for wealth chokes God’s Word. Matthew 6:24 and some other Scriptures says, one cannot serve God and Mammon. In Luke 21:1-4, a poor widow is more generous than rich people. 1 Timothy 6:10 declares that the love of money is the root of all kinds of evil. To wrap it up, Luke 6:24 concludes by saying “woe to you who are rich”. Revelation 3:17:18 says;
“Because thou sayest, I am rich, and increased with goods, and have need of nothing; and knowest not that thou art wretched, and miserable, and poor, and blind, and naked: I counsel thee to buy of me gold tried in the fire, that thou mayest be rich; and white raiment, that thou mayest be clothed….”
However, there is a good side to wealth, having material prosperity or being wealthy is not a ticket to hell after all. God has created an abundance of good things for human enjoyment, but those who have material wealth should understand the true nature of earthly riches and acknowledge God as the source of all blessings. Hence, riches should be thankfully received, and Christians must value Heavenly riches more than earthly wealth. Those that are wealthy in this world must be generous to the poor and ensure that their hearts are not set on their wealth. Finally, in appreciation to God for His blessings, they should devote their riches to God’s service by sponsoring the gospel and the work of the ministry.
Prayer Point: Father, please send poverty far away from me and make me a divine treasurer.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Memorise: The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender. – Proverbs 22:7
Read: 1 Chronicles 4:9-10 (KJV)
9 And Jabez was more honourable than his brethren: and his mother called his name Jabez, saying, Because I bare him with sorrow.
10 And Jabez called on the God of Israel, saying, Oh that thou wouldest bless me indeed, and enlarge my coast, and that thine hand might be with me, and that thou wouldest keep me from evil, that it may not grieve me! And God granted him that which he requested.
Bible in One Year: Jeremiah 22:11-24:10, Psalms 50:1-15
MESSAGE:
Wealth is generally interpreted as the abundance of goods or money. However, Biblical reference to wealth is always within the framework of economic, social, cultural, spiritual and political settings of the people. Therefore, terms such as ‘rich’ and ‘poor’ are relative to the context in which they are used in the Bible. Wealth is mostly attached to people or nations but the Bible also mentioned wealthy individuals such as Abraham, Job, David, Solomon, the Queen of Sheba, etc. The New Testament Bible occasionally mentioned wealthy individuals such as Joseph of Arimathaea, the rich man in Luke 16:1, Cornelius in Acts 10, Prisca and Aquila, etc.
However, positive references to wealth are few in the Bible; references to personal wealth almost always carries some negative implication. Many statements of Jesus could be viewed as unfair criticisms of wealth. In Mark 10:23-25, He said it is extremely difficult for a rich person to enter the kingdom of God. In Mark 4:19, He said the quest for wealth chokes God’s Word. Matthew 6:24 and some other Scriptures says, one cannot serve God and Mammon. In Luke 21:1-4, a poor widow is more generous than rich people. 1 Timothy 6:10 declares that the love of money is the root of all kinds of evil. To wrap it up, Luke 6:24 concludes by saying “woe to you who are rich”. Revelation 3:17:18 says;
“Because thou sayest, I am rich, and increased with goods, and have need of nothing; and knowest not that thou art wretched, and miserable, and poor, and blind, and naked: I counsel thee to buy of me gold tried in the fire, that thou mayest be rich; and white raiment, that thou mayest be clothed….”
However, there is a good side to wealth, having material prosperity or being wealthy is not a ticket to hell after all. God has created an abundance of good things for human enjoyment, but those who have material wealth should understand the true nature of earthly riches and acknowledge God as the source of all blessings. Hence, riches should be thankfully received, and Christians must value Heavenly riches more than earthly wealth. Those that are wealthy in this world must be generous to the poor and ensure that their hearts are not set on their wealth. Finally, in appreciation to God for His blessings, they should devote their riches to God’s service by sponsoring the gospel and the work of the ministry.
Prayer Point: Father, please send poverty far away from me and make me a divine treasurer.
Open Heavens Daily Devotional guide was written by Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the largest evangelical church in the world and also the President of Christ the Redeemer's Ministries.
iOpenHeavens is the electronic version of the Hard Copy. The Open Heavens devotional application is available across all mobile platforms and operating systems: iOS, Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and PC.
Sunday, 4 September 2016
#Ondo2016 Rotimi Akeredolu emerges as APC candidate
Towards election in Ondo state, A former president of the Nigerian Bar Association, Rotimi Akeredolu has emerged the governorship candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ondo State. He emerged the flag bearer following the state party's primary election held amidst tight security in Akure, the state capital Saturday September 3rd.
LIB..
LIB..
Nigeria economy recession Emir Lamido Sanusi gives insight
The Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi, on August 24, warned President Muhammadu Buhari to avoid repeating the mistakes made by former President Goodluck Jonathan so his administration does not end up in infamy like that of his predecessor.
The former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria also warned the government against continuing to blame previous administrations for the nation’s woes, saying what was important was for the administration to concentrate on putting the nation back on the path of progress.
He gave the warning while delivering a paper entitled, “Nigeria In Search Of New Growth model” at the 15th meeting of the Joint Planning Board and National Council on Development Planning.
The Emir also spoke extensively on the nation’s economic recession.
Here is his full speech at the event:
First of all, I want to break from tradition. Usually I speak in Hausa in Kano. But, I don’t know how I am going to make an economic presentation in Hausa to 36 states’ commissioners and have someone translate it into English. To avoid things being lost in translation, I will speak in the language of economics.
Let me start by saying congratulations to you minister. This is the first time I am meeting you in an official function since your appointment, and to tell you in public what I have always said in private; that you are one of the sisters I remain extremely proud of your work. I wish you all the best in these challenging times.
I have always told people that Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, my teacher, (I don’t know if he is an ex or former minister, multiple times) taught me microeconomics. So, he takes a lot of the credits, and none of the blames, for what I have become.
Ladies and gentlemen, I was not given a specific topic to talk on. But, because the concern today is the concern about the recession Nigeria is in technically, and also because it is a meeting of Planning and Budget Ministers, I thought I will do a proper economic presentation and put down my thoughts on where I think we are; why I think we are where we are, and what I think we need to do to get out of this.
I am sure there will be many other presentations specifically on what a state can do to raise revenues and so on. But, having an overarching view of economic policy, and where we may or may not have done wrong, or what the key drivers of growth should be for the Nigerian economy are things I thought we should talk about at this session.
So, I call this presentation, Nigeria: The Search For A New Growth Model.
I will start by going back to the past, not just Nigeria, but Africa. Let’s ask ourselves what were the key drivers of growth in Africa, and what has changed since this golden decade Africa had.
Africa Golden Decade was basically the decade of the 2000s. Africa moved from the previous decade, where it was a hopeless continent, to a new decade that we have one type lifting all story of Africa rising.
This rise in Africa across the world was one of stories of sadness, poverty, famine and hunger to a continent that was full of potentials; where there were opportunities for investments; where capital markets were booming.
All of a sudden people heard countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, etc. when previously these were supposed to be a basket case in the world.
The first pillar of this growth was clearly shifting terms of trade, which as we all know in developing economics, can be a mirage.
You can’t have improving terms of trade when you are exporting commodities over short periods of a cycle. But, we know as far back as the 1950s, from the Latin American structure economics, that over the long term, any economy that specialises in exporting primary products and importing manufactures would end up having terms of trade shifting against it. You can have a temporary boost, but If you don’t use that boost to have a structural adjustment that would make for prudent management of the economy, you would be courting trouble.
By 2008, one barrel of oil would buy you one Sanyo flip telephone as against 19 barrels of oil to buy the same phone earlier. That gives an idea how well the terms of trade have shifted.
We had an oil price of $10 a barrel in the time of Babangida. At one point under Obasanjo, it rose to $140 a barrel. This was a time of rapidly improving technology, cheaper manufactured products and therefore our oil could technically import us much more.
This process was not common across all of Africa, because we are aware of other African economies that grew, and certainly it was not just one pillar. Let’s go to the second pillar of growth in Africa in that decade, which was debt.
Between 2002 and 2008, the levels of debt to GDP (gross domestic product) in African countries and what they became after the Paris Club, HIPC debt reliefs and so on. Nigeria was at 50 per cent debt to GDP and came down to literally 5 per cent or so.
This happened across all Africa in the form of debt forgiveness, debt relief, debt restructuring and so on. What this did was that it freed up government balance sheets and in that decade of Africa rising, the countries went back on a borrowing binge.
Nigeria kept borrowing, not externally, but internally. I think our external debt was just about $8 billion on the balance sheet. But, the Naira indebtedness of the Nigerian government, we were spending over 30 per cent (maybe 40 per cent now) of every Naira earned just servicing debts.
That’s what you have. Nobody was noticing it. We have written off the debts, and then we kept building it up bit by bit. And when you look at where that debt was going into, you will see why, or part of the answer to the problem we are having.
So, we have these two pillars – rising commodities prices, and we monetise oil revenue, we will be able spend money. We were able to borrow because the balance sheets could accommodate more debts.
Where did all these debts go? Did it go to roads, power, refineries, or infrastructure? No. The new borrowings were simply recycled into much higher recurrent expenditures. What that did was that it helped sustain a consumption boom. And GDP was growing, largely driven by consumption spending.
If you look at public sector wage bills in real terms, Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya, you will see it was rising significantly from 2005 to 2014.
In Nigeria, for example, our public sector wage bill went up from N443 billion in 2005 to N1.7 trillion in 2012.
In 2010, the government increased minimum wage to N18,000. I was at the Central Bank, I protested and protested. They had an election coming, they increased the minimum wage N18,000 and basically borrowed money to pay.
In 2012, as governor of Central Bank, I said this was an unsustainable wage bill. We needed to reduce the size of the public service. My own government minister came out to say that was the (CBN) governor’s personal opinion. In fact, she said the government wanted to employ more people. And this is the result.
I am serious. Sometimes I don’t bother. I’m never going to change. I’m never going to be political. I’m never going to stand here and tell people what they want to hear.
The problem is that there is nothing that we are facing today that we did not know would happen. That is the truth. We made mistakes. Many of them deliberate. We ignored every single word that pointed otherwise. Economics is a science. It is not a perfect science. But, over decades and decades and centuries, people have seen that there are certain things that, when you do, will lead to certain consequences.
If you take a brand new car and give a driver who doesn’t have a license to drive it and you have an accident, you really can’t say you were surprised, unless you are some kind of idiot.
We knew that this was going to happen. You can’t just keep borrowing money and paying salaries, not building roads, not improving power and think this will not happen.
We will see the per capita investment development in Nigeria and per capita results we are getting. These were all from a resource in an enclave economy.
And not so that we are not always blaming the previous administration, we have also made mistakes in this administration.
We have started retracing our steps. But, we have to retrace those steps. And if we fall into the same hole that we fell into the last time, where the government is always right.
When the minister is there, you tell them, “You know, Hon. Minister, Nigeria is very lucky to have you in office.” No! You tell the minister that you are doing well, but, you know there are these areas that you must change. If a policy is wrong, it is wrong. Nothing will make it right. And it has to be changed.
So, this is what we did. Look at real sector wages. It was not just Nigeria, it was all over Africa. Look at sovereign debt fuelling growth.
If you take the example of an individual. You happen to know bank MDs and you can make a few phone calls and get loans. You borrow N1 billion here today and build a very nice mansion in Abuja. You borrow another N1 billion and let your family go out on first class ticket as you are travelling all over the world. You borrow another N5 to N6 billion and buy a private jet.
We have very many people in Nigeria who you think are very rich. But, who are really bankrupt, because everything about them are being financed by bank debts. When one debt matures, they have enough connections to call another bank, borrow and refinance that debt. They are not earning anything. They have private jets. They have yachts. Their families travel first class. They go abroad and stay in the most expensive hotels. It happens. And it is happening today.
What do you think of those people? When you think about such people, do you think they are foolish people? Or do you think they are wise people? So, what would you say of a country that does this?
So, you feel growth by borrowing money, pay salaries, people spend money on pure consumption spending, nothing is produced. It’s fine. It’s short term. But, it is not sustainable. How much can you continue to borrow and consume without producing?
And the funny thing is, you did not have to stop borrowing. All you had to do was borrow the right amount and apply them to the right purposes. It doesn’t matter whether they were consumption spending or investment demand, GDP will grow. So, make a choice.
As a country, we made a choice. We wanted votes, popularity or palliatives, so long as people are getting high minimum wage, we keep quiet about all other things that were happening in the economy that we should be talking about.
That was the relationship between public debts and GDP growth.
Today, we are in a new reality. This is what they call the new normal in Africa. And we have a two speed Africa. If we look at the new IMF World outlook, you will see something interesting. Non-commodity Africa will be the fastest growing part of the world, even higher than emerging Asia, whereas commodities Africa (countries like Nigeria and Angola) are among the lowest growing parts of the world, at the rate of Europe and Latin America. And we can’t explain why.
But, think of a country like Ethiopia and then Meles Zenawi, the late Prime Minister. Ethiopia keeps growing year after year at 11-12 per cent. And what did Meles do? The simple things we have been saying for decades and decades and decades. This is a country that came out of a war, remember?
It’s facing insecurities; got Eritrea and other countries that do not like it around it. I’ll give two examples. Coffee. It originated from Ethiopia in the world. But, Ethiopian farmers, before Meles, would get 10 per cent of the value of coffee from their crops.
They would just produce the coffee and sell to companies, and the companies will take their coffee into Latin America and have it improved and dried and and packaged. And Zenawi just asked: “Why can’t we produce coffee in Ethiopia that would go straight from Ethiopia to the coffee shops in Europe?”
And all sorts of responses came. “Well, you know your weather is good for growing coffee. You coffee is very good, but your farmers have bad farming practices.”
So he said: “Why don’t you teach them?” So, he got in touch with the IFC (International Finance Corporation), got a loan, organised Ethiopian coffee farmers into cooperatives, taught them how to grow the coffee, how to dry, prepare and package it.
Today, if you go to coffee shops in Europe and take a cup of coffee that came straight from Ethiopian farm. And Ethiopian farmers are now getting 70 per cent of the value of the coffee, from the former 10 per cent.
So, he tells Aliko Dangote, come and build a cement manufacturing plant here. I am going to give you electricity at three cent per kilowatt hour. For a cement manufacturer, that is all the incentive that you need.
So, Dangote goes, builds the most sophisticated cement plant in Ethiopia, gets electricity almost for nothing and cost of cement drops by 60 per cent.
The construction industries gets boosted. Roads are being built with cement. Jobs are created. And new industry has taken off.
He said to the Chinese, “I don’t like this your idea of coming to buy hides and skin and leather from Ethiopia and sell us shoes. Set up the factory here.”
Nigeria imports 3 million pairs of shoes per annum from China. Nobody knows how much duty they pay. I am not talking about expensive shoes. I am not talking about what you buy from Pierre Cardin, or Gucci. I am talking about shoes people wear on the streets. Shoes that can be bought here in Kano.
We can produce all the shoes, and school bags we want for primary and secondary schools children, millions and millions of pairs. No, we don’t. You know what we do, we export the wet blue and we import from shoes from China, and we have Chinese people coming here to take wet blue to China and bring back shoes.
We are just a very interesting country.
Every single thing we are talking about today about what we need to do have been said before. I have a document “Industrialization Potentials of Northern Nigeria under Ahmadu Bello, 1962.” There is nothing we are saying today that was not part of the industrial plan of Northern Nigeria in 1962.
We are clapping ourselves that after 50 years, we have learnt nothing. The whole industrialisation of Kano, starting from Bombay to Sharada to Challawa had space on that plan.
These are very simple economic logic. You cannot continue doing the wrong things and expect to have the right result.
Since 1950s and 1960s, they understood what was the essence of colonialism. It was to come to these countries, take our raw materials, process them and sell us manufactured goods, and keep shifting the terms of trade against them, so you get richer at their expense.
They understood that independence was not about the flag, but about reversing that process. They understood it. We did not. And therefore they said we needed to stop exporting our cotton. We need to build textile industries. We need to stop exporting groundnuts.
Kano used to take pride in groundnut pyramids. I still have people who come to me and say: “You know, Emir, you must bring back those groundnut pyramids.”
But, I don’t build groundnut pyramids. I want oil mills. What am I doing with groundnut pyramids? They stopped exporting groundnut pyramids and build all these oil mills. We should stop exporting hides and skin. Huge multinational corporations that came to Nigeria, whose business was to buy hides and skin. A company like John Holt. In Hausa anyone who trades in skins is called ‘Dan Janho’.
It became a Hausa word, because this was a multinational whose duty was to just buy hides and skins and take to Europe to produce shoes for us to buy.
So, they said let us build our own factories and produce our own shoes and bags. It’s so bad in this country.
Tomato paste that our wives use in kitchens is imported from China. At best, it is packaged in Nigeria. Now, we have a paste factory 40 kilometres from Kano. That’s about the first. We cannot process tomato. We have to import tomato from China. It’s a very sad case.
A country of 170 million people last week Nigerians were celebrating, because we went to Rio and came back with one bronze medal. I saw Nigerians jumping. Somebody said at least we were on the medals table.
We don’t have ambitions as a nation. Some of these things are not just about numbers. It is about a mindset and a people and attitude.
Do we really love our country? Do we feel any shame when we say that Malaysia that came and took palm seeds from us is now exporting palm oil? Palm oil is what Eastern Nigeria people eat. Now, we can’t produce it. Vegetable oil, groundnut oil.
I went to my friend’s house the other day in Lagos and they gave me Moringa tea in a nicely packaged tin. That is the thing that grows wildly here in the Northern part of the country. Somebody takes Moringa, puts it in a tin, packages it. I did not even know it was called Moringa until I took the tea. They packaged it and gave it an English name. I did not even know it again. It was after I drank it that I knew it was Zogale, as it is called in the local language.
If they had packaged it and called it Zogale, it would have been known as Zogale tea all over the world. Just like people know coffee from Ethiopia. But, now that it is called Moringa, a Hausa man does not know what Moringa is, and it is growing in his backyard. Then, he takes pound sterling to import Moringa tea. So, this is what Ethiopia did.
I will show you what countries like Kenya did, which we didn’t do, and therefore Nigeria is right there in the low band and non-commodities Africa is in the upper band.
What is it that works?
What is it that these non-commodities African countries have done that we have not done?
First, take a model that is investment-driven, rather than consumer or consumption-driven.
At the very top, you have Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Ghana, Kenya and Egypt. Those at the bottom are Angola and Nigeria.
And if you talk today in Africa, they will think Nigeria and Angola are the richest countries, because they are oil producing. But, the truth is that we are the worst performers, in terms of investments to GDP.
If you look at the other countries that do not have oil, look at what they have done.
If you have a high investment to GDP, you will deliver high growth that is also inclusive. If you continue working on consumption and rent-seeking model, your growth is not inclusive, which is why in Nigeria, you have, over the past two decades, increasing income distribution inequalities.
It is very easy to be very rich based on rent.
Again, we can always talk about the policies of previous administrations. We talk about oil subsidies that brought oil billionaires. But, we have also created our own billionaires since 2015 from foreign exchange subsidies. People are shaking their heads. They don’t seem to understand what I mean. Let me give an example.
I did not just become an Emir. Before then I was Governor of Central Bank. Before then, I was a bank MD. So, I have friends in the banking industry.
When the CBN was selling dollars at N197 and people were buying at N300, if I sit in my garden and make calls on the phone, I will have enough people to call in the industry to get me $10 million at official rate. Do you doubt it?
As a former MD, former governor of the CBN and what they now call a royal father? Think about. I sit in my garden and make a few phone calls, and get $10 million at N197 per dollar and sell at N300 to the dollar, I will make a profit of N1.03 billion.
If I do that four times in a year, for doing nothing, I would have had N4 billion. And people were telling us that this policy was to help the poor. We are not devaluing the Naira, because if we do the poor people would suffer. The people that were profiting from this were people that were telling the government that if it devalued the Naira people would suffer.
Meanwhile, they all got the dollars at N197 and priced their goods at N300 to the dollar. The poor paid the price of a devalued currency and the rich schemed off the profits. It went on for one year. We talked and talked and talked.
If this government continues to behave the way the last government behaved, we will end up where Jonathan ended. We may not like it. But, that is the truth. You have to listen. You don’t need to be an economist to know that any system that allows you to sit in your garden and with a telephone call make N1 billion without investing a kobo, that system is wrong.
It is unsustainable, no matter how positive you think about it.
So, the first thing I will like to say is that there are many voodoo economists parading around. And many of them are not economists. They are demagogues. They tell poor people, anyone that says devalue the Naira wants you to pay a high price. It is arithmetics. It is not economics. Many of the arguments I see in newspapers, sometimes I feel like writing back, and I will remember I am an Emir and I am not supposed to.
Even this one I am giving this lecture, maybe someone would say: “Emir, stop giving these kinds of lectures.”
That you have someone who writes what you call a brilliant economic paper, and he is telling you that if you devalue the currency prices would go up. Is that economics or arithmetics? It is arithmetics!
If you ask your boy in Primary 3, if the dollar costs N150 today, and tomorrow it costs N300, what would happen to prices? He will tell you prices will double. He can calculate. One times 300 is two times one times 150. That is not economics. That is arithmetics.
The economics of it is, these billions that are being schemed off by people who get official exchange rate, should you give the states their revenue.
For example, should you take dollars, for every $1 billion taken from the Federation Account and sold by the CBN at N200 to the dollar, the states were losing N100 billion that could have gone into salaries, agriculture, healthcare. Yet, the states were going to borrow from the same government on a bailout when the government was selling dollars cheaply to a small group of people. What kind of economy are we running?
Who is advising the government? I have asked that question before. I want to know so I can talk to the adviser.
We did not have money. Oil prices had collapsed. Niger Delta Avengers were blowing up oil wells. The scarce dollars we had, we were selling cheaply, subsidizing people. What was the argument? We need to promote manufacturing. Right? Thank you. But, what percentage of your GDP is manufacturing? Eight percent.
Let me ask you Commissioner, you are a manufacturer, you are able to secure $10 million from the Central Bank to import raw materials and produce goods, you spend N2 billion to get $10 million, and somebody says to you: “Listen, I will pay you N3 billion for this $10 million, so that you make a profit of 50 per cent for just doing nothing. Just buy the dollars and sell.”
Your option is to buy raw materials, establish a letter of credit, import raw materials, maintain generators, buy diesel, pay labour, produce your goods, take the risk you may not sell at a profit, transport it, or to make a profit margin of 10 per cent over a 120 term period, what would be your choice?
Would you import and manufacture? You have an automatic guaranteed 50 per cent return immediately for no labour. With this every manufacturer abandoned production and started looking for FOREX. I had people who would come to me or telephone me and book an appointment only to ask me: “Your Highness, I want you to help me get dollars.” They wanted to turn me into a dollar middleman. So, every manufacturer decided that he would get the dollar and sell, instead of buying raw materials and producing. So, what happens to production and employment? What do you end up with? A recession. And why are we surprised we are having a recession? We created it.
But, we did not call it recession. We called it demand management. People were using words they did not understand. You want to manage demand? Fine. You will manage demand for industrial raw materials, you are also managing industrial output. You manage demand into inputs to services and manage down service outputs. The result we have was the result that we were always going to get with sets of policies we put in place. And we don’t realise that we made those mistakes. I am glad it seems we have. But, we need to just come out and come clean. That is the best way. We have taken a few wrong steps. It was all done in good faith. We genuinely wanted help the poor people, that’s why we made those mistakes. Now, we are retracing our steps. Now we begin to talk.
Let’s look at the GDP against government spending. For Nigeria, from a base in 2005 to 2015, GDP has been rising nominally, driven largely by recurrent expenditure. If you looks closely, recurrent expenditure seems to spike on the eve of elections.
The economy has quadrupled in nominal terms since 2005. Our population has grown by 40 million since 2005, but capital expenditure has not changed. $0 million more people, but we don’t have more power, roads, schools, hospitals houses, etc. Where are these 40 million people going to be? The Niger Delta creeks and Sambisa Forests?
Our economy, at least in part, created terrorism by simply not creating the opportunities for these young people. If you think the Niger Delta or Boko Haram or other insurgents or something are the issue, let me give you another number.
We have over 160 million Nigerians today. The median age is 19. In the next 20 years, we are going to have at least 80 million Nigerian men and women between the ages of 20 and 40. Maybe in the next generation you can start doing something about it. You can start family planning or something. But, these ones have been born, and we have to prepare for them. Those of us who are alive now, we have to prepare for what we are going to do with these 80 million young people. We can’t kill them. And if we do not expand the earnings and production base of the economy through wise investment and very difficult, but appropriate decisions, we will end up in a classical Malthusian situation, where the resources cannot support the population and we start having wars and pestilence.
This is Rev. Thomas Max, one of the very first lessons you learn in EC101.
Look at the road ahead. You know this is all a combination of old sets of policies. There are times in the history of this country when we had it right. But, we didn’t continue.
A lot of the reforms done in the second term of Obasanjo laid the foundation for sustainable growth. But, then we kept going back and forth. And I am hoping that in here we are not like the ordinary innate Nigerian.
We do feel a level of shame at what we see. You have got your per capita nominal income – Angola, Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia.
Per capita income in Kenya is $1,388. In Nigeria, it is $2,943. So, on paper, Kenya is half as rich as Nigeria. So, how much is Kenya able to raise as tax revenue per capita? $232. How much was Nigeria raising in 2014-2015? $117. Now, how much was Kenya spending as development spend per citizen? $129. How much was Nigeria spending? $17.
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The research you see don’t just come out of nowhere. They are the direct consequence of deliberate policy decisions. If you choose to make it very profitable for people to produce fake bills of lading and claim fuel subsidy and build estates and private jets, we are never going to have refineries.
If you make it profitable for a Chinese man to come to Kano…. Now in Kano, the Chinese are doing tie and dye. Even the tie and dye pit that has been in Kano for about 600 years are at risk.
We have been talking about the protection of this industries. Minister of Planning, nobody has done anything you know. In the next 10 or 20 years, if people of Kano starts picking Chinese and throwing them into the dye pits, because they are importing simple dye, they took the technology from Kano, went to China and they will now be coming to ask the people the pattern that they want.
They come in, they bribe Customs, and because there is no way you can produce that thing in China and bring it and they sell and our industries are destroyed. The textile Industries in Kano are gone. The tanneries and leather industries are gone. A combination of a lack of electricity and infrastructure, lack of investments and very bad trade policies.
We have to go back to the drawing board. This is why this conference and the Ministry of Planning are the most important economic Ministry. I have always said that the Planning Minister is the most important Economic Minister.
Assuming that, one, he is able to produce a very good plan, and two, that the government listens to him. And this is why I thought instead of coming here to talk about just monetary and fiscal policy, I will talk about them.
But, let’s try to get into a mindset, where at the federal, states and local levels, we can actually look and see what we can do to change this things.
So, are we going to adopt an investment driven model? Now, we talked about the public sector, and public sector fundings, and when I come forward I will show you that for Planning Ministers, you need to think beyond what the government budget is. If you need to build a road, your job is not about whether you can raise enough taxes to build the road, it is whether you can fund that road.
With the combination of taxes, and debts and investment and whatever, that road needs to be built. It doesn’t have to come from the government’s balance sheet. Nobody says the government must fund every single thing that is development. This is where investment becomes important. We are not getting money from oil.
Our non-oil revenue is not rising fast enough. We talk about taxation, but there is a limit to how much you can tax a man who is not able to eat. And also, there is a limit to how much you can continue borrowing in Naira. You know, we play with these numbers. When I was in the Central Bank, we say: “Oh! You know, our debt to GDP ratio was 25%, therefore it is nothing to worry about. It is not up to 70%. Your debt to GDP ratio is 20%, and you spend 30% of your revenue servicing debt. What does that tell you?
70% of your GDP does not generate government revenue. Agriculture is about 35%. How much tax does it pay? Wholesale and retail trade, how much tax does it pay? You have a GDP where the tax is coming from the oil sector and telecom’s. That’s your government revenue base. And those sectors constitute maybe 30% of GDP. So, for all intents and purposes, gentlemen, if your debt to GDP ratio is 30%, and only 30% of your GDP is generating revenue, you are at 100%, until you broaden your tax base.
If you just look at debt to GDP ratio, there is no reason why the Nigerian government cannot borrow more than N2-3 trillion. But, let them borrow now. When are they going to pay? You don’t pay debt from GDP. You service debt from revenue. Nobody talks about debt to revenue.
What’s the good news? It’s that Nigeria is not all about oil. I know we all think it is oil. But it is not!
Oil does not form even a critical part of our GDP, or our growth. Look at these numbers. That’s your GDP per capita.
The present value of your oil reserve in 2016, which was calculated based on 37.2 million barrels, $60 a barrel, production horizon of 40 years and discount rate of 12 per cent.
If you sold the entire oil reserves of Nigeria today, the proceeds will add only $1164 per head, compared to GDP per capita of 3000 in 2016.
So, those making noise about oil should stop making noise about ii. People should stop being afraid, because oil is not critical. It is just a working capital. We sell it. We get the dollars that we use to import. If you can find another source of working capital, we can do without it. It is 15% of GDP.
When I was governor of Central Bank, the economy was growing at 37%. The oil sector was not adding anything to GDP growth. The growth was coming from agriculture, services and trade, which is also very revealing. If we are now saying we are in a recession, because of the collapse in oil price, we are not being sincere.
You can’t be in recession, because a sector that is 15% of your GDP has declined. What happened to agriculture, trade, services and health?
Something else to look at. This is the slide that got me sacked from my job. You know the truth will always be there and I like this power point presentations because the figures tell you more than a thousand words. These are our external accounts, now look at Nigeria and look at Kenya up there in the blue line. These are current accounts surpluses we have had from 2005 to 2014. Not even one oil price rise in 2014 did we have in our current account deposit. I think today, up to 2014 we have current accounts surpluses. Now, below there you have other investment assets, which will be your capital inflows. I mean your reserve, and you have something called net errors and omissions.
Look at 2014, the errors and omissions were about $20 billion, from about minus 5 to minus 35, about $30 billion actually. So, when you are an accountant and you produce accounts and errors and omissions that are 70% of the numbers, or 60%, what does that tell you?
These are national accounts published by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Central Bank is telling Nigeria: “Look, all we know is that this is money that we think should be in the economy, but we cannot find it.” And people didn’t want me to talk. Now, we are hearing where the money went. All sorts of revelations that nobody thought where possible. Everyday they were captured in errors and omissions. Now, look at Kenya. They do have errors and omissions, but compare the errors and omissions bar to what they were able to account for.
5%, even 10%, is acceptable. But when you cannot explain where 50% of your earnings went and the country continues and nobody is asking any questions, and even when you tell Nigerians that this is the thing, they will say: “Don’t mind the man.”
Look at that, so where do we have a problem? First of all, as you can see we have not been able to attract investments. All the other investment assets headed as errors and omissions had been headed out. Which means, the money went out and did not come back. Anything below the zero line represents money that went out of Nigeria and did not come back.
Anything above represents what came in on the net basis. Now, a country like Kenya was having huge trade deficit, and that’s why the blue lines are below zero, but is able to attract investment. And that’s all above the line and that’s why Kenya is growing. We earn the money, we don’t attract any kind of investments, apart from portfolio flows. How much investment do we have in the oil sector, roads, economy, agriculture, refineries. etc.? When you talk to people, they will tell you this sectors are not profitable. But why are people investing in Kenya agriculture? Why are they investing in roads in South Africa? Why are they building bridges? Why are they investing in power plants in Ethiopia?
I am Chairman of a company called Black Rhino. By the way, I don’t have a kobo in that company, but I am a Chairman. This short man who owns black stone said to us: “Gentlemen, here is $5 billion to invest in power projects in Africa, a joint venture with Dangote on a condition that for every $1billion you put in, Dangote puts in $1 billion, so we have $10 billion to invest.
We have projects in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya. I accepted to be Chairman on one condition only, that he will allow me to fix a power project in Kano. And he said: “If you can find a good power project in Kano, I am okay.”
Now, power companies are here trying to invest, negotiating. And what did we hear? One day some judge in a court sits down and says reverse the tariffs. I am here talking to someone in New York who cannot understand that a government can issue a power privatization plan; that investors can come in; that there is a regulator for power; that they looked at the numbers, looked at the cost of power, looked at what is cost recovery, agree on a tariff, announce that tariff, they bring in their money to invest on the basis of that and a court in the same country says this is illegal.
You know, for you sitting here and for Nigerians, this may not sound well, in fact people were saying yes! They are cheating us. But, what that one judgement does in terms of the signals to foreign investors is very disastrous.
There is no country in the world where a court had agreed to interfere with commercial transactions between the government and private investors that are in to attract investments. There is a contract!
The judge did not even say do not give this going forward. He said the ones that have been done is illegal, and you expect somebody now to bring in $3 billion to invest in power in Nigeria?
Knowing that you can tell him this is the tariff, and tomorrow your court can wake up and say the tariff is illegal? So, as planning ministers and commissioners, if you decide upfront that investment is important to you, the entire system has to be searched, to make sure that these signals are not set.
Your Customs officers should know that okay, this is the duty; pay correct duty. Don’t add anything on top. It is the economy’s investment. If a man is entitled to 5 year visa for bringing some kind of investment, he will get it. He doesn’t need to know anybody in immigration.
The court should respect legal agreements. And the right incentives should be provided, and when you provide incentives, do not review. Every government comes in and the next thing you know, some businessmen comes to them and say: “Your previous government gave this one tax incentive and you start reviewing and reviewing. The next time you offer somebody your own incentive to invest, he will not come, because he believes that the next government will reverse it.”
If the government that has made the mistake is gone, you then offer your own set of incentives and make sure that they are transparent. If you offer somebody an incentive in cement, make sure that every cement manufacturer gets that incentive. Fine, its sectoral.
Assuming cement is important to you, if you offer an incentive for agriculture, make sure that everybody who meets those conditions should get those incentives, not just somebody who knows his way around Abuja. The farms are not in Abuja anyway.
You can see this. Basically, no investment has come in, and as you can see, I am building a consistent story that you have had growth model driven by commodities and consumption, which is your problem, and you now need to shift and you have a growth model that is driven by investment. And for this forum, it means you got to stop thinking so much about how much the government can spend, as in how much can we get into this economy.
Lagos has done very well. If I have money to invest, I will invest it in Lagos, because it is attracting investment. Lagos has realized a long time ago that the government cannot fund all it needs. And I just love what Lagos has done. The Lagos story is a story of what Nigeria can do with itself – transparency, consistency, regulations – and people can be rich. There is no problem if people can be rich while growing an economy. Nobody minds. But, in Nigeria people become rich when people are dying. Let’s take the Lagos story, and that’s why today Lagos state is 30% Nigerian non-oil GDP, and Lagos can do without oil.
Lagos can do without the rest of this country. So, we must not let Lagos go.
This country is better off with Lagos than with the Niger Delta. Let’s not make that mistake. We should be together as a country. Every part of the country is important. But, let us not be so obsessed by a resource, because we have had the commodity driven model, and we are blind to the potentials of an alternative model.
Lagos doesn’t need oil. What is oil anyway? It is a raw material. You don’t drink it. You need it to move your vehicles. Now, you have electricity. You need it to fill your generator. Now you have solar power, and biomass. The future of oil is not there. So, those few people who are trying to break up this country over oil, after sometime that oil will be worthless. You are better off being in a country that is based on this model. This is a country of the future, that is the past.
Exchange rate
Let me start by congratulating the government for making changes. Unfortunately, those changes were a bit late. But, the adjustment has been very severe.
My sense is that where we are today, the Naira is already undervalued. If you look at the real effective exchange rate, we are below the zero line. Basically, what this means is, if the Naira were to strengthen to about 9%, you will get exchange rate palliatives. So, you are not really under any more pressures for a devaluation. This is the nominal exchange rate adjusted for relative prices, and also adjusted for rates of our trading partners. So, on a trade basis, the Naira has gone from one of the most overvalued currencies when we were at N197 to the dollar, to the one that is undervalued. So, that adjustment has been made by the Central Bank. And what the Central Bank needs to do is just to allow this system to operate properly and stop panicking. You know, from what you can see here, even if the markets starts at N320, N340 or N350 to the dollar, if you allow it to operate, it will revalue itself and adjust.
What is causing the problem is all the sense that we are not entirely flexible, and sometimes wrong signals. After you have allowed the flexible markets, you act as if you really don’t believe in it.
These things don’t just work on fundamentals. I was in the Central Bank, the markets works on the basis of confidence and perception. There was a time speculators started hitting the market when I was with the Central Bank. The Kenyan Shilling got hit and got divided by 25%. Ghana got hit by 30%. South Africa got hit and they started heading towards Nigeria. And I called an emergency monetary policy committee meeting jerked up the monetary policy rate (MPR) by 200 basis points, jacked up CRR (cash reserve ratio) by 400 basis points and declared that I will defend the currency. I didn’t have the money to defend the currency, but everybody believed me and they left me alone. The market works based on confidence. By the time you have taken over one bank, fire one bank MD, they will believe you when you make a threat. I made many threats as governor of the Central Bank that I never carried out. If banks messed up, I will say, I will remove you, and because I have removed bank MDs, they will say sorry sir. They fell in line. So, if you are going on a flexible exchange rate, have the nerves. You have produced a fantastic document, stick to it. You can’t be any worse than you were. You are in a recession anyway, so you are trying something different. So, try it and try it properly.
Real interest rates: Again, Central Bank has raised it and people have been attacking the Central Bank for raising the rates. Why? It’s not just about inflation. It is about stabilizing the currency, because the truth is that where we are today, the only way we are going to reverse this recession is to increase liquidity in the foreign exchange markets and reduce the gap between the official rate and the parallel market rate.And this is what I think the Central Bank needs to keep doing.
A flexible exchange rate regime and a positive real interest rate will combine to bridge that gap. Bring in the dollars that we need to finance imports, and those imports of raw materials are the things that will increase production, and that production is what will lead to growth.
I have been very critical of what the Central Bank has been doing since the beginning of this administration. I am very supportive of the decisions it has taken in the last few Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, all that we ask is that they have produced a fantastic document on foreign exchange rate they should do it.
On the treasury single account (TSA), they should just realize the difference between the dollars balance sheets and the Naira balance sheets, because I have seen this whole thing about banks being banned from foreign exchange markets for dollar TSA. The Naira balance sheets of banks is highly diversified. The government deposits may be 20% of deposits. Banks are financial intermediaries. They engage in what is called maturity transformation. They borrow money short term and loan for long term on their Naira balance sheets. They have this money coming every day – current accounts, savings and deposits. If you tell them to pay off government deposits, they pay off and send marketers out and raise money.
On the dollar balance sheets, Nigeria only raise dollar on oil sales. The IOCs (international oil companies) have their money in international banks. NNPC is the only provider of dollar money, and they have lent out that money. If you apply the same rules on the Naira balance sheet and dollar balance sheets, without looking at concentration risk, you bring the banks down. They have lent out these dollars. Look at the maturity of their assets. Give them time to pay back these dollars. For them to pay back these dollars, they have to find dollars elsewhere. Where are they going to find? Who is the other exporter, apart from oil. What do we export in Nigeria?
And that is the point. So, they need to be very careful. So long as you know where the money is, give them the time to sort out their assets and pay back. Don’t precipitate a banking crisis and this idea of banning banks from foreign exchange market.
In the history of this country, and Dr. Shamsudeen Usman knows that, very few banks have ever survived after being banned from foreign exchange markets, because banks has lent money to customers who depend on import to produce. If banks can’t buy dollars for those customers, they can’t produce. They can’t pay back their debts. You build up non-performing loans. So, let us think through the consequences of some of these decisions that we take. But, apart from that, I am extremely supportive. I think the Central Bank is doing the right thing, and I think we should encourage them. I think the government should be given credit to say we are going to retrace our steps.
The government has said we are going to eliminate wasteful subsidies. I don’t want to go deep into this. I have been saying a lot about fuel subsidy since 2011-12. We have seen everything. Just an interesting thing. If you look at 2011-2012, in theory o, because I don’t believe it, we were importing about 60 million liters of premium motor spirit (PMS) every day. Now, we are down to a little above 30million liters every day, has our population gone down? Do we have fewer cars? Are we consuming less? All those numbers were fake.
Again, you can go back to the record 2011- 2012, I sat in front of the House of Representatives and made a presentation. I produced documents. I had documents that showed people claiming they had 15 vessels of 30,000 metric tons offloading in Lagos on the same day, and they were being paid subsidy based on those documents. People sat in their offices produced bills of lading, bribed everybody from Customs to PPPRA (Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency) to whatever and got money out. All they needed was a paper that says you have allocation, and based on that allocation they will go.
I am glad again that we are moving towards removing these subsidies. They are painful. Let me make that clear. If you have to pay more for fuel, it hurts, it bites. The truth is that no system is perfect. And the subsidy system benefited a very small groups of criminals much more than it benefited the poor people.
And if you are going to subsidies, please provide this subsidy in production. Provide cheap gas to power plants and set power prices to a level where they can make a profit without passing on high gas prices to customers. Reduce the cost of setting up a business. Reduce the tax burden on pioneer industries. Subsidize production. Do not subsidize consumption. Rather than give poor people subsidy on fuel that never gets to them, take that money and put it in their hands. We were spending $6 billion, $7billion per annum on fake subsidies. And where is that money today? It is all in private jets, private yacht, expensive jewelries, property abroad, that’s where it is. It is not in this economy. Its gone out. One number I will give you is that Nigeria earned $16 billion from the oil sector in 2011. I was the governor of Central Bank. We established LCs worth $8billion for importing petroleum products and spent another $8 billion in petroleum subsidy. Every dollar we earned from the oil sector went back to petroleum sector in 2011. Not one dollar went into education, roads, power. It went into importing fuel and paying subsidy on imported fuel. The numbers are there. And if you look at that town hall meeting that has been going on, on Channels TV I gave this number then. Not that this one I am saying will change anything o! I am just saying it. But, tomorrow if you invite me, you will hear.
Look at power generation. That is where we need to focus on. Let’s get the power reports back on track. Fantastic policy. Power was privatized. What happened? People bought DISCOs (distribution companies), because they had connections. Dr. Usman was head of what was called the technical committee on privatization and commercialization in the 1980s. I know because as a Merchant Banker, I privatized Okomu. Okomu oil mill is still there. As a solid company, because when they were in TCPC, they have a process where you don’t just buy a company. If you say you are going to invest, they had a process of making sure that after you bought that company, you make those investments. They don’t just sell assets to you. Privatization is not just about selling assets to people, it is about making sure that they make the investment they are committed to making when they bought it. So, we have people who bought DISCOs who said they will invest, but they have not invested.
Land Registries. Lagos has done well, but you need to do more. In Lagos alone, you have 13 procedures to register land, according to World Land in Business Report.
It takes 77 days, 10% of your property value and the quality of land is 7 out of 30, compared to 22 in the OECD countries. Lagos has now moved up, they are merging all relevant laws into a single piece of legislation. The only reason why I am not praising Lagos is, because I want to see the result first. But, they have at least realized that this is a problem. And I hope all states would look at this.
Power and Land reforms are very important and having that data base is critical, especially for agriculture. Mark your land, give a C of O; let the farmer be able to use that land as collateral to borrow, or as security. Many of you had read Henandez De Sotos’ The Mystery of Capitals. Land is capital. I have that big problem here in Kano, especially in the Muslim villages. A woman’s husband dies and leaves her a farm. She doesn’t farm. So, her husband takes over the farm, he farms it, but that is her capital, and she gets no return on it. He uses her farm. He earns a living and he gives her chop money from her own money.
I am Chairman of a group call “Babbangona”. We are working on farmers trying to improve their yields, and I am having that problem, and I get to the district heads and say: “Look, get all Muslim women that own farms to sit with their husbands. This money that is being given for seeds, for fertilizer, for inputs is being given to the woman who owns the land. If your husband wants to be the labourer, let him be. If he doesn’t, let her get someone else. You are the boss, because she owns the land.
If your husband is ready to farm for you for a fee, let him do it. Otherwise, we will find a farmer for you.”
So, this issue of land is crucial to addressing poverty, especially poverty among rural women. Many of them own lands being hijacked by their husbands and they remain poor. And it is all cultural, but what I learn from “Tudun wada” is that the Christian woman has learned to farm and they come out to farm, because they love it. But, the Muslim woman has been stopped from farming, but in the name of culture. What the men had done is that they have taken over their capital, and it’s not religion. And therefore, as leaders, we have to address this social issues as part of economic rejuvenation.
Trade Policy: You know, I keep sounding like a broken record 2012 – 2012.
I wrote an article in the Financial Times in London in which I criticized China’s relationship with Africa. It was very controversial. I don’t know if you read it. But, if you google it, you will see it. Now, look at this. These are our trade with China. We are all importing from China. Those that export to China are exporting oil or solid minerals. China’s interest in Africa is not our development. America’s interest in Africa is not our development. Europe interest in Africa is not our developments. China’s interest is China’s developments. Likewise America and Europe. Please our government! Our interest should be Nigeria’s development.
If the Chinese are going to come back and set up textile factories in Nigeria and buy cotton from our farmers and employ Nigerian workers and produce these textiles and sell to us, they are welcome. If they are going to produce textiles in Shanghai. Subsidize them. Bring them here. Bribe our Customs Officers. Come to our markets and destroy our industries, we have to say no sir!
If China is lending us money, and we are going to pay back that money to import equipment from China, we should please check that those equipment are properly and transparently priced; that we cannot get them cheaper from another part of the world; and that they are of high quality. This idea that am lending you $1billion to buy rice mills from me, which you can get at half the price elsewhere, you have already paid interest of 100%. If you don’t know it, the price is not a cheap loan.
Now, we go to these countries and we think there are no strings attached, especially at this time that the World Bank and the IMF and the Europeans are saying we want you to pursuit policies, China does not interfere. So, we are running to China, it is a good partner.
We must trade with China, India, Europe with America. I have nothing against any of them. What I want us to do is to sit on the table with them and negotiate trade agreements that protect our interest, because that is what they are doing and that is what every reasonable country in the world does.
So, I think we have talked about Fiscal Policy, Monetary policy, Trade and Industrial policy and if there is any message I have tried to send is that we have a model.
Historically, that was driven by commodity growth, by consumer spending. We have a future that is based on investment that should come in. We need to move to an investment-driven model. We need to have some elements of state planning. We cannot just allow the market. The market will not put money in agriculture, refineries. So, you have to provide the incentive and lead capital so that’s where you are important and that what for me is the way forward.
So what’s the summary? The years of Africa rising where one child could lift us up are behind us. Sustainable inclusive growth now depends on investment. Please every planning commissioner should remember that its investment.
The role government can play is now by getting appropriate market growth, and we said that you don’t have enough money. You have seen how much money you are raising per head. It is not much. Even if you move money from recurrent to capital expenditure, if the pull does not increase, it is not much. So, the government doesn’t have the pocket to do. If you got to look for private investments, local and foreign, to to do that, and you do that by having a corporate micro-policy and the government is getting it right, finally, and also creating a supportive business environment.
So, set excess rate to intensify it flows, eliminate subsidies, that has been done. Now, address failures in the power sector value chain, starting with the DISCOs, digitize state, land registries, prioritise public spending towards investment and protect infant industries.
Anybody who tells you not to protect your industries is deceiving you. Create a level playing field between the infant industries and the big ones. I am not saying go and protect everything, but they must be a way of ensuring through power, infrastructure, industrial plasters, research and technology, technical and vocational education and through appropriate trade and tariff policies that critical policies are incubated before they are allowed to go out on the streets.
Thank you.
The former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria also warned the government against continuing to blame previous administrations for the nation’s woes, saying what was important was for the administration to concentrate on putting the nation back on the path of progress.
He gave the warning while delivering a paper entitled, “Nigeria In Search Of New Growth model” at the 15th meeting of the Joint Planning Board and National Council on Development Planning.
The Emir also spoke extensively on the nation’s economic recession.
Here is his full speech at the event:
First of all, I want to break from tradition. Usually I speak in Hausa in Kano. But, I don’t know how I am going to make an economic presentation in Hausa to 36 states’ commissioners and have someone translate it into English. To avoid things being lost in translation, I will speak in the language of economics.
Let me start by saying congratulations to you minister. This is the first time I am meeting you in an official function since your appointment, and to tell you in public what I have always said in private; that you are one of the sisters I remain extremely proud of your work. I wish you all the best in these challenging times.
I have always told people that Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, my teacher, (I don’t know if he is an ex or former minister, multiple times) taught me microeconomics. So, he takes a lot of the credits, and none of the blames, for what I have become.
Ladies and gentlemen, I was not given a specific topic to talk on. But, because the concern today is the concern about the recession Nigeria is in technically, and also because it is a meeting of Planning and Budget Ministers, I thought I will do a proper economic presentation and put down my thoughts on where I think we are; why I think we are where we are, and what I think we need to do to get out of this.
I am sure there will be many other presentations specifically on what a state can do to raise revenues and so on. But, having an overarching view of economic policy, and where we may or may not have done wrong, or what the key drivers of growth should be for the Nigerian economy are things I thought we should talk about at this session.
So, I call this presentation, Nigeria: The Search For A New Growth Model.
I will start by going back to the past, not just Nigeria, but Africa. Let’s ask ourselves what were the key drivers of growth in Africa, and what has changed since this golden decade Africa had.
Africa Golden Decade was basically the decade of the 2000s. Africa moved from the previous decade, where it was a hopeless continent, to a new decade that we have one type lifting all story of Africa rising.
This rise in Africa across the world was one of stories of sadness, poverty, famine and hunger to a continent that was full of potentials; where there were opportunities for investments; where capital markets were booming.
All of a sudden people heard countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, etc. when previously these were supposed to be a basket case in the world.
The first pillar of this growth was clearly shifting terms of trade, which as we all know in developing economics, can be a mirage.
You can’t have improving terms of trade when you are exporting commodities over short periods of a cycle. But, we know as far back as the 1950s, from the Latin American structure economics, that over the long term, any economy that specialises in exporting primary products and importing manufactures would end up having terms of trade shifting against it. You can have a temporary boost, but If you don’t use that boost to have a structural adjustment that would make for prudent management of the economy, you would be courting trouble.
By 2008, one barrel of oil would buy you one Sanyo flip telephone as against 19 barrels of oil to buy the same phone earlier. That gives an idea how well the terms of trade have shifted.
We had an oil price of $10 a barrel in the time of Babangida. At one point under Obasanjo, it rose to $140 a barrel. This was a time of rapidly improving technology, cheaper manufactured products and therefore our oil could technically import us much more.
This process was not common across all of Africa, because we are aware of other African economies that grew, and certainly it was not just one pillar. Let’s go to the second pillar of growth in Africa in that decade, which was debt.
Between 2002 and 2008, the levels of debt to GDP (gross domestic product) in African countries and what they became after the Paris Club, HIPC debt reliefs and so on. Nigeria was at 50 per cent debt to GDP and came down to literally 5 per cent or so.
This happened across all Africa in the form of debt forgiveness, debt relief, debt restructuring and so on. What this did was that it freed up government balance sheets and in that decade of Africa rising, the countries went back on a borrowing binge.
Nigeria kept borrowing, not externally, but internally. I think our external debt was just about $8 billion on the balance sheet. But, the Naira indebtedness of the Nigerian government, we were spending over 30 per cent (maybe 40 per cent now) of every Naira earned just servicing debts.
That’s what you have. Nobody was noticing it. We have written off the debts, and then we kept building it up bit by bit. And when you look at where that debt was going into, you will see why, or part of the answer to the problem we are having.
So, we have these two pillars – rising commodities prices, and we monetise oil revenue, we will be able spend money. We were able to borrow because the balance sheets could accommodate more debts.
Where did all these debts go? Did it go to roads, power, refineries, or infrastructure? No. The new borrowings were simply recycled into much higher recurrent expenditures. What that did was that it helped sustain a consumption boom. And GDP was growing, largely driven by consumption spending.
If you look at public sector wage bills in real terms, Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya, you will see it was rising significantly from 2005 to 2014.
In Nigeria, for example, our public sector wage bill went up from N443 billion in 2005 to N1.7 trillion in 2012.
In 2010, the government increased minimum wage to N18,000. I was at the Central Bank, I protested and protested. They had an election coming, they increased the minimum wage N18,000 and basically borrowed money to pay.
In 2012, as governor of Central Bank, I said this was an unsustainable wage bill. We needed to reduce the size of the public service. My own government minister came out to say that was the (CBN) governor’s personal opinion. In fact, she said the government wanted to employ more people. And this is the result.
I am serious. Sometimes I don’t bother. I’m never going to change. I’m never going to be political. I’m never going to stand here and tell people what they want to hear.
The problem is that there is nothing that we are facing today that we did not know would happen. That is the truth. We made mistakes. Many of them deliberate. We ignored every single word that pointed otherwise. Economics is a science. It is not a perfect science. But, over decades and decades and centuries, people have seen that there are certain things that, when you do, will lead to certain consequences.
If you take a brand new car and give a driver who doesn’t have a license to drive it and you have an accident, you really can’t say you were surprised, unless you are some kind of idiot.
We knew that this was going to happen. You can’t just keep borrowing money and paying salaries, not building roads, not improving power and think this will not happen.
We will see the per capita investment development in Nigeria and per capita results we are getting. These were all from a resource in an enclave economy.
And not so that we are not always blaming the previous administration, we have also made mistakes in this administration.
We have started retracing our steps. But, we have to retrace those steps. And if we fall into the same hole that we fell into the last time, where the government is always right.
When the minister is there, you tell them, “You know, Hon. Minister, Nigeria is very lucky to have you in office.” No! You tell the minister that you are doing well, but, you know there are these areas that you must change. If a policy is wrong, it is wrong. Nothing will make it right. And it has to be changed.
So, this is what we did. Look at real sector wages. It was not just Nigeria, it was all over Africa. Look at sovereign debt fuelling growth.
If you take the example of an individual. You happen to know bank MDs and you can make a few phone calls and get loans. You borrow N1 billion here today and build a very nice mansion in Abuja. You borrow another N1 billion and let your family go out on first class ticket as you are travelling all over the world. You borrow another N5 to N6 billion and buy a private jet.
We have very many people in Nigeria who you think are very rich. But, who are really bankrupt, because everything about them are being financed by bank debts. When one debt matures, they have enough connections to call another bank, borrow and refinance that debt. They are not earning anything. They have private jets. They have yachts. Their families travel first class. They go abroad and stay in the most expensive hotels. It happens. And it is happening today.
What do you think of those people? When you think about such people, do you think they are foolish people? Or do you think they are wise people? So, what would you say of a country that does this?
So, you feel growth by borrowing money, pay salaries, people spend money on pure consumption spending, nothing is produced. It’s fine. It’s short term. But, it is not sustainable. How much can you continue to borrow and consume without producing?
And the funny thing is, you did not have to stop borrowing. All you had to do was borrow the right amount and apply them to the right purposes. It doesn’t matter whether they were consumption spending or investment demand, GDP will grow. So, make a choice.
As a country, we made a choice. We wanted votes, popularity or palliatives, so long as people are getting high minimum wage, we keep quiet about all other things that were happening in the economy that we should be talking about.
That was the relationship between public debts and GDP growth.
Today, we are in a new reality. This is what they call the new normal in Africa. And we have a two speed Africa. If we look at the new IMF World outlook, you will see something interesting. Non-commodity Africa will be the fastest growing part of the world, even higher than emerging Asia, whereas commodities Africa (countries like Nigeria and Angola) are among the lowest growing parts of the world, at the rate of Europe and Latin America. And we can’t explain why.
But, think of a country like Ethiopia and then Meles Zenawi, the late Prime Minister. Ethiopia keeps growing year after year at 11-12 per cent. And what did Meles do? The simple things we have been saying for decades and decades and decades. This is a country that came out of a war, remember?
It’s facing insecurities; got Eritrea and other countries that do not like it around it. I’ll give two examples. Coffee. It originated from Ethiopia in the world. But, Ethiopian farmers, before Meles, would get 10 per cent of the value of coffee from their crops.
They would just produce the coffee and sell to companies, and the companies will take their coffee into Latin America and have it improved and dried and and packaged. And Zenawi just asked: “Why can’t we produce coffee in Ethiopia that would go straight from Ethiopia to the coffee shops in Europe?”
And all sorts of responses came. “Well, you know your weather is good for growing coffee. You coffee is very good, but your farmers have bad farming practices.”
So he said: “Why don’t you teach them?” So, he got in touch with the IFC (International Finance Corporation), got a loan, organised Ethiopian coffee farmers into cooperatives, taught them how to grow the coffee, how to dry, prepare and package it.
Today, if you go to coffee shops in Europe and take a cup of coffee that came straight from Ethiopian farm. And Ethiopian farmers are now getting 70 per cent of the value of the coffee, from the former 10 per cent.
So, he tells Aliko Dangote, come and build a cement manufacturing plant here. I am going to give you electricity at three cent per kilowatt hour. For a cement manufacturer, that is all the incentive that you need.
So, Dangote goes, builds the most sophisticated cement plant in Ethiopia, gets electricity almost for nothing and cost of cement drops by 60 per cent.
The construction industries gets boosted. Roads are being built with cement. Jobs are created. And new industry has taken off.
He said to the Chinese, “I don’t like this your idea of coming to buy hides and skin and leather from Ethiopia and sell us shoes. Set up the factory here.”
Nigeria imports 3 million pairs of shoes per annum from China. Nobody knows how much duty they pay. I am not talking about expensive shoes. I am not talking about what you buy from Pierre Cardin, or Gucci. I am talking about shoes people wear on the streets. Shoes that can be bought here in Kano.
We can produce all the shoes, and school bags we want for primary and secondary schools children, millions and millions of pairs. No, we don’t. You know what we do, we export the wet blue and we import from shoes from China, and we have Chinese people coming here to take wet blue to China and bring back shoes.
We are just a very interesting country.
Every single thing we are talking about today about what we need to do have been said before. I have a document “Industrialization Potentials of Northern Nigeria under Ahmadu Bello, 1962.” There is nothing we are saying today that was not part of the industrial plan of Northern Nigeria in 1962.
We are clapping ourselves that after 50 years, we have learnt nothing. The whole industrialisation of Kano, starting from Bombay to Sharada to Challawa had space on that plan.
These are very simple economic logic. You cannot continue doing the wrong things and expect to have the right result.
Since 1950s and 1960s, they understood what was the essence of colonialism. It was to come to these countries, take our raw materials, process them and sell us manufactured goods, and keep shifting the terms of trade against them, so you get richer at their expense.
They understood that independence was not about the flag, but about reversing that process. They understood it. We did not. And therefore they said we needed to stop exporting our cotton. We need to build textile industries. We need to stop exporting groundnuts.
Kano used to take pride in groundnut pyramids. I still have people who come to me and say: “You know, Emir, you must bring back those groundnut pyramids.”
But, I don’t build groundnut pyramids. I want oil mills. What am I doing with groundnut pyramids? They stopped exporting groundnut pyramids and build all these oil mills. We should stop exporting hides and skin. Huge multinational corporations that came to Nigeria, whose business was to buy hides and skin. A company like John Holt. In Hausa anyone who trades in skins is called ‘Dan Janho’.
It became a Hausa word, because this was a multinational whose duty was to just buy hides and skins and take to Europe to produce shoes for us to buy.
So, they said let us build our own factories and produce our own shoes and bags. It’s so bad in this country.
Tomato paste that our wives use in kitchens is imported from China. At best, it is packaged in Nigeria. Now, we have a paste factory 40 kilometres from Kano. That’s about the first. We cannot process tomato. We have to import tomato from China. It’s a very sad case.
A country of 170 million people last week Nigerians were celebrating, because we went to Rio and came back with one bronze medal. I saw Nigerians jumping. Somebody said at least we were on the medals table.
We don’t have ambitions as a nation. Some of these things are not just about numbers. It is about a mindset and a people and attitude.
Do we really love our country? Do we feel any shame when we say that Malaysia that came and took palm seeds from us is now exporting palm oil? Palm oil is what Eastern Nigeria people eat. Now, we can’t produce it. Vegetable oil, groundnut oil.
I went to my friend’s house the other day in Lagos and they gave me Moringa tea in a nicely packaged tin. That is the thing that grows wildly here in the Northern part of the country. Somebody takes Moringa, puts it in a tin, packages it. I did not even know it was called Moringa until I took the tea. They packaged it and gave it an English name. I did not even know it again. It was after I drank it that I knew it was Zogale, as it is called in the local language.
If they had packaged it and called it Zogale, it would have been known as Zogale tea all over the world. Just like people know coffee from Ethiopia. But, now that it is called Moringa, a Hausa man does not know what Moringa is, and it is growing in his backyard. Then, he takes pound sterling to import Moringa tea. So, this is what Ethiopia did.
I will show you what countries like Kenya did, which we didn’t do, and therefore Nigeria is right there in the low band and non-commodities Africa is in the upper band.
What is it that works?
What is it that these non-commodities African countries have done that we have not done?
First, take a model that is investment-driven, rather than consumer or consumption-driven.
At the very top, you have Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Ghana, Kenya and Egypt. Those at the bottom are Angola and Nigeria.
And if you talk today in Africa, they will think Nigeria and Angola are the richest countries, because they are oil producing. But, the truth is that we are the worst performers, in terms of investments to GDP.
If you look at the other countries that do not have oil, look at what they have done.
If you have a high investment to GDP, you will deliver high growth that is also inclusive. If you continue working on consumption and rent-seeking model, your growth is not inclusive, which is why in Nigeria, you have, over the past two decades, increasing income distribution inequalities.
It is very easy to be very rich based on rent.
Again, we can always talk about the policies of previous administrations. We talk about oil subsidies that brought oil billionaires. But, we have also created our own billionaires since 2015 from foreign exchange subsidies. People are shaking their heads. They don’t seem to understand what I mean. Let me give an example.
I did not just become an Emir. Before then I was Governor of Central Bank. Before then, I was a bank MD. So, I have friends in the banking industry.
When the CBN was selling dollars at N197 and people were buying at N300, if I sit in my garden and make calls on the phone, I will have enough people to call in the industry to get me $10 million at official rate. Do you doubt it?
As a former MD, former governor of the CBN and what they now call a royal father? Think about. I sit in my garden and make a few phone calls, and get $10 million at N197 per dollar and sell at N300 to the dollar, I will make a profit of N1.03 billion.
If I do that four times in a year, for doing nothing, I would have had N4 billion. And people were telling us that this policy was to help the poor. We are not devaluing the Naira, because if we do the poor people would suffer. The people that were profiting from this were people that were telling the government that if it devalued the Naira people would suffer.
Meanwhile, they all got the dollars at N197 and priced their goods at N300 to the dollar. The poor paid the price of a devalued currency and the rich schemed off the profits. It went on for one year. We talked and talked and talked.
If this government continues to behave the way the last government behaved, we will end up where Jonathan ended. We may not like it. But, that is the truth. You have to listen. You don’t need to be an economist to know that any system that allows you to sit in your garden and with a telephone call make N1 billion without investing a kobo, that system is wrong.
It is unsustainable, no matter how positive you think about it.
So, the first thing I will like to say is that there are many voodoo economists parading around. And many of them are not economists. They are demagogues. They tell poor people, anyone that says devalue the Naira wants you to pay a high price. It is arithmetics. It is not economics. Many of the arguments I see in newspapers, sometimes I feel like writing back, and I will remember I am an Emir and I am not supposed to.
Even this one I am giving this lecture, maybe someone would say: “Emir, stop giving these kinds of lectures.”
That you have someone who writes what you call a brilliant economic paper, and he is telling you that if you devalue the currency prices would go up. Is that economics or arithmetics? It is arithmetics!
If you ask your boy in Primary 3, if the dollar costs N150 today, and tomorrow it costs N300, what would happen to prices? He will tell you prices will double. He can calculate. One times 300 is two times one times 150. That is not economics. That is arithmetics.
The economics of it is, these billions that are being schemed off by people who get official exchange rate, should you give the states their revenue.
For example, should you take dollars, for every $1 billion taken from the Federation Account and sold by the CBN at N200 to the dollar, the states were losing N100 billion that could have gone into salaries, agriculture, healthcare. Yet, the states were going to borrow from the same government on a bailout when the government was selling dollars cheaply to a small group of people. What kind of economy are we running?
Who is advising the government? I have asked that question before. I want to know so I can talk to the adviser.
We did not have money. Oil prices had collapsed. Niger Delta Avengers were blowing up oil wells. The scarce dollars we had, we were selling cheaply, subsidizing people. What was the argument? We need to promote manufacturing. Right? Thank you. But, what percentage of your GDP is manufacturing? Eight percent.
Let me ask you Commissioner, you are a manufacturer, you are able to secure $10 million from the Central Bank to import raw materials and produce goods, you spend N2 billion to get $10 million, and somebody says to you: “Listen, I will pay you N3 billion for this $10 million, so that you make a profit of 50 per cent for just doing nothing. Just buy the dollars and sell.”
Your option is to buy raw materials, establish a letter of credit, import raw materials, maintain generators, buy diesel, pay labour, produce your goods, take the risk you may not sell at a profit, transport it, or to make a profit margin of 10 per cent over a 120 term period, what would be your choice?
Would you import and manufacture? You have an automatic guaranteed 50 per cent return immediately for no labour. With this every manufacturer abandoned production and started looking for FOREX. I had people who would come to me or telephone me and book an appointment only to ask me: “Your Highness, I want you to help me get dollars.” They wanted to turn me into a dollar middleman. So, every manufacturer decided that he would get the dollar and sell, instead of buying raw materials and producing. So, what happens to production and employment? What do you end up with? A recession. And why are we surprised we are having a recession? We created it.
But, we did not call it recession. We called it demand management. People were using words they did not understand. You want to manage demand? Fine. You will manage demand for industrial raw materials, you are also managing industrial output. You manage demand into inputs to services and manage down service outputs. The result we have was the result that we were always going to get with sets of policies we put in place. And we don’t realise that we made those mistakes. I am glad it seems we have. But, we need to just come out and come clean. That is the best way. We have taken a few wrong steps. It was all done in good faith. We genuinely wanted help the poor people, that’s why we made those mistakes. Now, we are retracing our steps. Now we begin to talk.
Let’s look at the GDP against government spending. For Nigeria, from a base in 2005 to 2015, GDP has been rising nominally, driven largely by recurrent expenditure. If you looks closely, recurrent expenditure seems to spike on the eve of elections.
The economy has quadrupled in nominal terms since 2005. Our population has grown by 40 million since 2005, but capital expenditure has not changed. $0 million more people, but we don’t have more power, roads, schools, hospitals houses, etc. Where are these 40 million people going to be? The Niger Delta creeks and Sambisa Forests?
Our economy, at least in part, created terrorism by simply not creating the opportunities for these young people. If you think the Niger Delta or Boko Haram or other insurgents or something are the issue, let me give you another number.
We have over 160 million Nigerians today. The median age is 19. In the next 20 years, we are going to have at least 80 million Nigerian men and women between the ages of 20 and 40. Maybe in the next generation you can start doing something about it. You can start family planning or something. But, these ones have been born, and we have to prepare for them. Those of us who are alive now, we have to prepare for what we are going to do with these 80 million young people. We can’t kill them. And if we do not expand the earnings and production base of the economy through wise investment and very difficult, but appropriate decisions, we will end up in a classical Malthusian situation, where the resources cannot support the population and we start having wars and pestilence.
This is Rev. Thomas Max, one of the very first lessons you learn in EC101.
Look at the road ahead. You know this is all a combination of old sets of policies. There are times in the history of this country when we had it right. But, we didn’t continue.
A lot of the reforms done in the second term of Obasanjo laid the foundation for sustainable growth. But, then we kept going back and forth. And I am hoping that in here we are not like the ordinary innate Nigerian.
We do feel a level of shame at what we see. You have got your per capita nominal income – Angola, Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia.
Per capita income in Kenya is $1,388. In Nigeria, it is $2,943. So, on paper, Kenya is half as rich as Nigeria. So, how much is Kenya able to raise as tax revenue per capita? $232. How much was Nigeria raising in 2014-2015? $117. Now, how much was Kenya spending as development spend per citizen? $129. How much was Nigeria spending? $17.
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The research you see don’t just come out of nowhere. They are the direct consequence of deliberate policy decisions. If you choose to make it very profitable for people to produce fake bills of lading and claim fuel subsidy and build estates and private jets, we are never going to have refineries.
If you make it profitable for a Chinese man to come to Kano…. Now in Kano, the Chinese are doing tie and dye. Even the tie and dye pit that has been in Kano for about 600 years are at risk.
We have been talking about the protection of this industries. Minister of Planning, nobody has done anything you know. In the next 10 or 20 years, if people of Kano starts picking Chinese and throwing them into the dye pits, because they are importing simple dye, they took the technology from Kano, went to China and they will now be coming to ask the people the pattern that they want.
They come in, they bribe Customs, and because there is no way you can produce that thing in China and bring it and they sell and our industries are destroyed. The textile Industries in Kano are gone. The tanneries and leather industries are gone. A combination of a lack of electricity and infrastructure, lack of investments and very bad trade policies.
We have to go back to the drawing board. This is why this conference and the Ministry of Planning are the most important economic Ministry. I have always said that the Planning Minister is the most important Economic Minister.
Assuming that, one, he is able to produce a very good plan, and two, that the government listens to him. And this is why I thought instead of coming here to talk about just monetary and fiscal policy, I will talk about them.
But, let’s try to get into a mindset, where at the federal, states and local levels, we can actually look and see what we can do to change this things.
So, are we going to adopt an investment driven model? Now, we talked about the public sector, and public sector fundings, and when I come forward I will show you that for Planning Ministers, you need to think beyond what the government budget is. If you need to build a road, your job is not about whether you can raise enough taxes to build the road, it is whether you can fund that road.
With the combination of taxes, and debts and investment and whatever, that road needs to be built. It doesn’t have to come from the government’s balance sheet. Nobody says the government must fund every single thing that is development. This is where investment becomes important. We are not getting money from oil.
Our non-oil revenue is not rising fast enough. We talk about taxation, but there is a limit to how much you can tax a man who is not able to eat. And also, there is a limit to how much you can continue borrowing in Naira. You know, we play with these numbers. When I was in the Central Bank, we say: “Oh! You know, our debt to GDP ratio was 25%, therefore it is nothing to worry about. It is not up to 70%. Your debt to GDP ratio is 20%, and you spend 30% of your revenue servicing debt. What does that tell you?
70% of your GDP does not generate government revenue. Agriculture is about 35%. How much tax does it pay? Wholesale and retail trade, how much tax does it pay? You have a GDP where the tax is coming from the oil sector and telecom’s. That’s your government revenue base. And those sectors constitute maybe 30% of GDP. So, for all intents and purposes, gentlemen, if your debt to GDP ratio is 30%, and only 30% of your GDP is generating revenue, you are at 100%, until you broaden your tax base.
If you just look at debt to GDP ratio, there is no reason why the Nigerian government cannot borrow more than N2-3 trillion. But, let them borrow now. When are they going to pay? You don’t pay debt from GDP. You service debt from revenue. Nobody talks about debt to revenue.
What’s the good news? It’s that Nigeria is not all about oil. I know we all think it is oil. But it is not!
Oil does not form even a critical part of our GDP, or our growth. Look at these numbers. That’s your GDP per capita.
The present value of your oil reserve in 2016, which was calculated based on 37.2 million barrels, $60 a barrel, production horizon of 40 years and discount rate of 12 per cent.
If you sold the entire oil reserves of Nigeria today, the proceeds will add only $1164 per head, compared to GDP per capita of 3000 in 2016.
So, those making noise about oil should stop making noise about ii. People should stop being afraid, because oil is not critical. It is just a working capital. We sell it. We get the dollars that we use to import. If you can find another source of working capital, we can do without it. It is 15% of GDP.
When I was governor of Central Bank, the economy was growing at 37%. The oil sector was not adding anything to GDP growth. The growth was coming from agriculture, services and trade, which is also very revealing. If we are now saying we are in a recession, because of the collapse in oil price, we are not being sincere.
You can’t be in recession, because a sector that is 15% of your GDP has declined. What happened to agriculture, trade, services and health?
Something else to look at. This is the slide that got me sacked from my job. You know the truth will always be there and I like this power point presentations because the figures tell you more than a thousand words. These are our external accounts, now look at Nigeria and look at Kenya up there in the blue line. These are current accounts surpluses we have had from 2005 to 2014. Not even one oil price rise in 2014 did we have in our current account deposit. I think today, up to 2014 we have current accounts surpluses. Now, below there you have other investment assets, which will be your capital inflows. I mean your reserve, and you have something called net errors and omissions.
Look at 2014, the errors and omissions were about $20 billion, from about minus 5 to minus 35, about $30 billion actually. So, when you are an accountant and you produce accounts and errors and omissions that are 70% of the numbers, or 60%, what does that tell you?
These are national accounts published by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Central Bank is telling Nigeria: “Look, all we know is that this is money that we think should be in the economy, but we cannot find it.” And people didn’t want me to talk. Now, we are hearing where the money went. All sorts of revelations that nobody thought where possible. Everyday they were captured in errors and omissions. Now, look at Kenya. They do have errors and omissions, but compare the errors and omissions bar to what they were able to account for.
5%, even 10%, is acceptable. But when you cannot explain where 50% of your earnings went and the country continues and nobody is asking any questions, and even when you tell Nigerians that this is the thing, they will say: “Don’t mind the man.”
Look at that, so where do we have a problem? First of all, as you can see we have not been able to attract investments. All the other investment assets headed as errors and omissions had been headed out. Which means, the money went out and did not come back. Anything below the zero line represents money that went out of Nigeria and did not come back.
Anything above represents what came in on the net basis. Now, a country like Kenya was having huge trade deficit, and that’s why the blue lines are below zero, but is able to attract investment. And that’s all above the line and that’s why Kenya is growing. We earn the money, we don’t attract any kind of investments, apart from portfolio flows. How much investment do we have in the oil sector, roads, economy, agriculture, refineries. etc.? When you talk to people, they will tell you this sectors are not profitable. But why are people investing in Kenya agriculture? Why are they investing in roads in South Africa? Why are they building bridges? Why are they investing in power plants in Ethiopia?
I am Chairman of a company called Black Rhino. By the way, I don’t have a kobo in that company, but I am a Chairman. This short man who owns black stone said to us: “Gentlemen, here is $5 billion to invest in power projects in Africa, a joint venture with Dangote on a condition that for every $1billion you put in, Dangote puts in $1 billion, so we have $10 billion to invest.
We have projects in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya. I accepted to be Chairman on one condition only, that he will allow me to fix a power project in Kano. And he said: “If you can find a good power project in Kano, I am okay.”
Now, power companies are here trying to invest, negotiating. And what did we hear? One day some judge in a court sits down and says reverse the tariffs. I am here talking to someone in New York who cannot understand that a government can issue a power privatization plan; that investors can come in; that there is a regulator for power; that they looked at the numbers, looked at the cost of power, looked at what is cost recovery, agree on a tariff, announce that tariff, they bring in their money to invest on the basis of that and a court in the same country says this is illegal.
You know, for you sitting here and for Nigerians, this may not sound well, in fact people were saying yes! They are cheating us. But, what that one judgement does in terms of the signals to foreign investors is very disastrous.
There is no country in the world where a court had agreed to interfere with commercial transactions between the government and private investors that are in to attract investments. There is a contract!
The judge did not even say do not give this going forward. He said the ones that have been done is illegal, and you expect somebody now to bring in $3 billion to invest in power in Nigeria?
Knowing that you can tell him this is the tariff, and tomorrow your court can wake up and say the tariff is illegal? So, as planning ministers and commissioners, if you decide upfront that investment is important to you, the entire system has to be searched, to make sure that these signals are not set.
Your Customs officers should know that okay, this is the duty; pay correct duty. Don’t add anything on top. It is the economy’s investment. If a man is entitled to 5 year visa for bringing some kind of investment, he will get it. He doesn’t need to know anybody in immigration.
The court should respect legal agreements. And the right incentives should be provided, and when you provide incentives, do not review. Every government comes in and the next thing you know, some businessmen comes to them and say: “Your previous government gave this one tax incentive and you start reviewing and reviewing. The next time you offer somebody your own incentive to invest, he will not come, because he believes that the next government will reverse it.”
If the government that has made the mistake is gone, you then offer your own set of incentives and make sure that they are transparent. If you offer somebody an incentive in cement, make sure that every cement manufacturer gets that incentive. Fine, its sectoral.
Assuming cement is important to you, if you offer an incentive for agriculture, make sure that everybody who meets those conditions should get those incentives, not just somebody who knows his way around Abuja. The farms are not in Abuja anyway.
You can see this. Basically, no investment has come in, and as you can see, I am building a consistent story that you have had growth model driven by commodities and consumption, which is your problem, and you now need to shift and you have a growth model that is driven by investment. And for this forum, it means you got to stop thinking so much about how much the government can spend, as in how much can we get into this economy.
Lagos has done very well. If I have money to invest, I will invest it in Lagos, because it is attracting investment. Lagos has realized a long time ago that the government cannot fund all it needs. And I just love what Lagos has done. The Lagos story is a story of what Nigeria can do with itself – transparency, consistency, regulations – and people can be rich. There is no problem if people can be rich while growing an economy. Nobody minds. But, in Nigeria people become rich when people are dying. Let’s take the Lagos story, and that’s why today Lagos state is 30% Nigerian non-oil GDP, and Lagos can do without oil.
Lagos can do without the rest of this country. So, we must not let Lagos go.
This country is better off with Lagos than with the Niger Delta. Let’s not make that mistake. We should be together as a country. Every part of the country is important. But, let us not be so obsessed by a resource, because we have had the commodity driven model, and we are blind to the potentials of an alternative model.
Lagos doesn’t need oil. What is oil anyway? It is a raw material. You don’t drink it. You need it to move your vehicles. Now, you have electricity. You need it to fill your generator. Now you have solar power, and biomass. The future of oil is not there. So, those few people who are trying to break up this country over oil, after sometime that oil will be worthless. You are better off being in a country that is based on this model. This is a country of the future, that is the past.
Exchange rate
Let me start by congratulating the government for making changes. Unfortunately, those changes were a bit late. But, the adjustment has been very severe.
My sense is that where we are today, the Naira is already undervalued. If you look at the real effective exchange rate, we are below the zero line. Basically, what this means is, if the Naira were to strengthen to about 9%, you will get exchange rate palliatives. So, you are not really under any more pressures for a devaluation. This is the nominal exchange rate adjusted for relative prices, and also adjusted for rates of our trading partners. So, on a trade basis, the Naira has gone from one of the most overvalued currencies when we were at N197 to the dollar, to the one that is undervalued. So, that adjustment has been made by the Central Bank. And what the Central Bank needs to do is just to allow this system to operate properly and stop panicking. You know, from what you can see here, even if the markets starts at N320, N340 or N350 to the dollar, if you allow it to operate, it will revalue itself and adjust.
What is causing the problem is all the sense that we are not entirely flexible, and sometimes wrong signals. After you have allowed the flexible markets, you act as if you really don’t believe in it.
These things don’t just work on fundamentals. I was in the Central Bank, the markets works on the basis of confidence and perception. There was a time speculators started hitting the market when I was with the Central Bank. The Kenyan Shilling got hit and got divided by 25%. Ghana got hit by 30%. South Africa got hit and they started heading towards Nigeria. And I called an emergency monetary policy committee meeting jerked up the monetary policy rate (MPR) by 200 basis points, jacked up CRR (cash reserve ratio) by 400 basis points and declared that I will defend the currency. I didn’t have the money to defend the currency, but everybody believed me and they left me alone. The market works based on confidence. By the time you have taken over one bank, fire one bank MD, they will believe you when you make a threat. I made many threats as governor of the Central Bank that I never carried out. If banks messed up, I will say, I will remove you, and because I have removed bank MDs, they will say sorry sir. They fell in line. So, if you are going on a flexible exchange rate, have the nerves. You have produced a fantastic document, stick to it. You can’t be any worse than you were. You are in a recession anyway, so you are trying something different. So, try it and try it properly.
Real interest rates: Again, Central Bank has raised it and people have been attacking the Central Bank for raising the rates. Why? It’s not just about inflation. It is about stabilizing the currency, because the truth is that where we are today, the only way we are going to reverse this recession is to increase liquidity in the foreign exchange markets and reduce the gap between the official rate and the parallel market rate.And this is what I think the Central Bank needs to keep doing.
A flexible exchange rate regime and a positive real interest rate will combine to bridge that gap. Bring in the dollars that we need to finance imports, and those imports of raw materials are the things that will increase production, and that production is what will lead to growth.
I have been very critical of what the Central Bank has been doing since the beginning of this administration. I am very supportive of the decisions it has taken in the last few Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, all that we ask is that they have produced a fantastic document on foreign exchange rate they should do it.
On the treasury single account (TSA), they should just realize the difference between the dollars balance sheets and the Naira balance sheets, because I have seen this whole thing about banks being banned from foreign exchange markets for dollar TSA. The Naira balance sheets of banks is highly diversified. The government deposits may be 20% of deposits. Banks are financial intermediaries. They engage in what is called maturity transformation. They borrow money short term and loan for long term on their Naira balance sheets. They have this money coming every day – current accounts, savings and deposits. If you tell them to pay off government deposits, they pay off and send marketers out and raise money.
On the dollar balance sheets, Nigeria only raise dollar on oil sales. The IOCs (international oil companies) have their money in international banks. NNPC is the only provider of dollar money, and they have lent out that money. If you apply the same rules on the Naira balance sheet and dollar balance sheets, without looking at concentration risk, you bring the banks down. They have lent out these dollars. Look at the maturity of their assets. Give them time to pay back these dollars. For them to pay back these dollars, they have to find dollars elsewhere. Where are they going to find? Who is the other exporter, apart from oil. What do we export in Nigeria?
And that is the point. So, they need to be very careful. So long as you know where the money is, give them the time to sort out their assets and pay back. Don’t precipitate a banking crisis and this idea of banning banks from foreign exchange market.
In the history of this country, and Dr. Shamsudeen Usman knows that, very few banks have ever survived after being banned from foreign exchange markets, because banks has lent money to customers who depend on import to produce. If banks can’t buy dollars for those customers, they can’t produce. They can’t pay back their debts. You build up non-performing loans. So, let us think through the consequences of some of these decisions that we take. But, apart from that, I am extremely supportive. I think the Central Bank is doing the right thing, and I think we should encourage them. I think the government should be given credit to say we are going to retrace our steps.
The government has said we are going to eliminate wasteful subsidies. I don’t want to go deep into this. I have been saying a lot about fuel subsidy since 2011-12. We have seen everything. Just an interesting thing. If you look at 2011-2012, in theory o, because I don’t believe it, we were importing about 60 million liters of premium motor spirit (PMS) every day. Now, we are down to a little above 30million liters every day, has our population gone down? Do we have fewer cars? Are we consuming less? All those numbers were fake.
Again, you can go back to the record 2011- 2012, I sat in front of the House of Representatives and made a presentation. I produced documents. I had documents that showed people claiming they had 15 vessels of 30,000 metric tons offloading in Lagos on the same day, and they were being paid subsidy based on those documents. People sat in their offices produced bills of lading, bribed everybody from Customs to PPPRA (Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency) to whatever and got money out. All they needed was a paper that says you have allocation, and based on that allocation they will go.
I am glad again that we are moving towards removing these subsidies. They are painful. Let me make that clear. If you have to pay more for fuel, it hurts, it bites. The truth is that no system is perfect. And the subsidy system benefited a very small groups of criminals much more than it benefited the poor people.
And if you are going to subsidies, please provide this subsidy in production. Provide cheap gas to power plants and set power prices to a level where they can make a profit without passing on high gas prices to customers. Reduce the cost of setting up a business. Reduce the tax burden on pioneer industries. Subsidize production. Do not subsidize consumption. Rather than give poor people subsidy on fuel that never gets to them, take that money and put it in their hands. We were spending $6 billion, $7billion per annum on fake subsidies. And where is that money today? It is all in private jets, private yacht, expensive jewelries, property abroad, that’s where it is. It is not in this economy. Its gone out. One number I will give you is that Nigeria earned $16 billion from the oil sector in 2011. I was the governor of Central Bank. We established LCs worth $8billion for importing petroleum products and spent another $8 billion in petroleum subsidy. Every dollar we earned from the oil sector went back to petroleum sector in 2011. Not one dollar went into education, roads, power. It went into importing fuel and paying subsidy on imported fuel. The numbers are there. And if you look at that town hall meeting that has been going on, on Channels TV I gave this number then. Not that this one I am saying will change anything o! I am just saying it. But, tomorrow if you invite me, you will hear.
Look at power generation. That is where we need to focus on. Let’s get the power reports back on track. Fantastic policy. Power was privatized. What happened? People bought DISCOs (distribution companies), because they had connections. Dr. Usman was head of what was called the technical committee on privatization and commercialization in the 1980s. I know because as a Merchant Banker, I privatized Okomu. Okomu oil mill is still there. As a solid company, because when they were in TCPC, they have a process where you don’t just buy a company. If you say you are going to invest, they had a process of making sure that after you bought that company, you make those investments. They don’t just sell assets to you. Privatization is not just about selling assets to people, it is about making sure that they make the investment they are committed to making when they bought it. So, we have people who bought DISCOs who said they will invest, but they have not invested.
Land Registries. Lagos has done well, but you need to do more. In Lagos alone, you have 13 procedures to register land, according to World Land in Business Report.
It takes 77 days, 10% of your property value and the quality of land is 7 out of 30, compared to 22 in the OECD countries. Lagos has now moved up, they are merging all relevant laws into a single piece of legislation. The only reason why I am not praising Lagos is, because I want to see the result first. But, they have at least realized that this is a problem. And I hope all states would look at this.
Power and Land reforms are very important and having that data base is critical, especially for agriculture. Mark your land, give a C of O; let the farmer be able to use that land as collateral to borrow, or as security. Many of you had read Henandez De Sotos’ The Mystery of Capitals. Land is capital. I have that big problem here in Kano, especially in the Muslim villages. A woman’s husband dies and leaves her a farm. She doesn’t farm. So, her husband takes over the farm, he farms it, but that is her capital, and she gets no return on it. He uses her farm. He earns a living and he gives her chop money from her own money.
I am Chairman of a group call “Babbangona”. We are working on farmers trying to improve their yields, and I am having that problem, and I get to the district heads and say: “Look, get all Muslim women that own farms to sit with their husbands. This money that is being given for seeds, for fertilizer, for inputs is being given to the woman who owns the land. If your husband wants to be the labourer, let him be. If he doesn’t, let her get someone else. You are the boss, because she owns the land.
If your husband is ready to farm for you for a fee, let him do it. Otherwise, we will find a farmer for you.”
So, this issue of land is crucial to addressing poverty, especially poverty among rural women. Many of them own lands being hijacked by their husbands and they remain poor. And it is all cultural, but what I learn from “Tudun wada” is that the Christian woman has learned to farm and they come out to farm, because they love it. But, the Muslim woman has been stopped from farming, but in the name of culture. What the men had done is that they have taken over their capital, and it’s not religion. And therefore, as leaders, we have to address this social issues as part of economic rejuvenation.
Trade Policy: You know, I keep sounding like a broken record 2012 – 2012.
I wrote an article in the Financial Times in London in which I criticized China’s relationship with Africa. It was very controversial. I don’t know if you read it. But, if you google it, you will see it. Now, look at this. These are our trade with China. We are all importing from China. Those that export to China are exporting oil or solid minerals. China’s interest in Africa is not our development. America’s interest in Africa is not our development. Europe interest in Africa is not our developments. China’s interest is China’s developments. Likewise America and Europe. Please our government! Our interest should be Nigeria’s development.
If the Chinese are going to come back and set up textile factories in Nigeria and buy cotton from our farmers and employ Nigerian workers and produce these textiles and sell to us, they are welcome. If they are going to produce textiles in Shanghai. Subsidize them. Bring them here. Bribe our Customs Officers. Come to our markets and destroy our industries, we have to say no sir!
If China is lending us money, and we are going to pay back that money to import equipment from China, we should please check that those equipment are properly and transparently priced; that we cannot get them cheaper from another part of the world; and that they are of high quality. This idea that am lending you $1billion to buy rice mills from me, which you can get at half the price elsewhere, you have already paid interest of 100%. If you don’t know it, the price is not a cheap loan.
Now, we go to these countries and we think there are no strings attached, especially at this time that the World Bank and the IMF and the Europeans are saying we want you to pursuit policies, China does not interfere. So, we are running to China, it is a good partner.
We must trade with China, India, Europe with America. I have nothing against any of them. What I want us to do is to sit on the table with them and negotiate trade agreements that protect our interest, because that is what they are doing and that is what every reasonable country in the world does.
So, I think we have talked about Fiscal Policy, Monetary policy, Trade and Industrial policy and if there is any message I have tried to send is that we have a model.
Historically, that was driven by commodity growth, by consumer spending. We have a future that is based on investment that should come in. We need to move to an investment-driven model. We need to have some elements of state planning. We cannot just allow the market. The market will not put money in agriculture, refineries. So, you have to provide the incentive and lead capital so that’s where you are important and that what for me is the way forward.
So what’s the summary? The years of Africa rising where one child could lift us up are behind us. Sustainable inclusive growth now depends on investment. Please every planning commissioner should remember that its investment.
The role government can play is now by getting appropriate market growth, and we said that you don’t have enough money. You have seen how much money you are raising per head. It is not much. Even if you move money from recurrent to capital expenditure, if the pull does not increase, it is not much. So, the government doesn’t have the pocket to do. If you got to look for private investments, local and foreign, to to do that, and you do that by having a corporate micro-policy and the government is getting it right, finally, and also creating a supportive business environment.
So, set excess rate to intensify it flows, eliminate subsidies, that has been done. Now, address failures in the power sector value chain, starting with the DISCOs, digitize state, land registries, prioritise public spending towards investment and protect infant industries.
Anybody who tells you not to protect your industries is deceiving you. Create a level playing field between the infant industries and the big ones. I am not saying go and protect everything, but they must be a way of ensuring through power, infrastructure, industrial plasters, research and technology, technical and vocational education and through appropriate trade and tariff policies that critical policies are incubated before they are allowed to go out on the streets.
Thank you.
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