Oil up 11 percent after two-day rally; trade volatile on stock builds

By Barani Krishnan

A worker fills up a car with fuel at a gas station in Caracas, January 12, 2015.

Credit: Reuters/Jorge Silva

(Reuters) - Oil prices rose strongly again on Monday, tacking on a total of 11 percent over two straight sessions, as some investors bet that a bottom had formed to the seven-month long rout on the market even as others remained pessimistic.
Benchmark Brent and U.S. oil futures swung in a band of about $4 a barrel, one of their widest in weeks, as near-term technical signals indicated further gains while fundamental data continued to weigh on the market.
"We could get a pretty good bear market correction here to really mess up all the new shorts," said Walter Zimmerman, chief technical analyst at United-ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey.


"In fact, at this point, I would rather just take profits on shorts and resell if the price low is broken, then just adding to shorts. I absolutely do not want to be adding to shorts down here."
Zimmerman said Brent could rise to over $61 a barrel and U.S. crude above $59 as oil prices snap out of oversold territory for the first time in months on concerns that falling U.S. oil rig counts may rein in a market glut.
The spread between Brent and U.S. crude widened to above $5 a barrel, its widest since November.
"I don't think anything's changed fundamentally, except for the psychology of the market," said Chandravir Ahuja, an analyst at Kolmar Americas Inc in Bridgeport, Connecticut. "We're moving a lot more on headlines that we probably would on a normal day."
Brent settled up $1.76, or 3.3 percent, at $54.75 a barrel, swinging between a session high of $55.62 and a low of $51.41.
U.S. crude closed up $1.33, or 2.8 percent, at $49.36 a barrel, moving between $50.56 and $46.67.
The rally came despite oil services company Genscape estimating a stock build of 2.3 million barrels in the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for U.S. crude last week, adding to already record-high inventories in the United States.
A U.S. refinery strike, which theoretically meant higher crude supplies in the market, along with disappointing U.S. consumer spending and manufacturing data, also failed to keep oil prices down.
Prices jumped about 8 percent on Friday, the biggest daily gain since 2009 for Brent, after data showed the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs had fallen the most in a week in nearly 30 years. Month-end covering by traders taking profits on earlier short positions added to the rally.
Speculators in Brent had raised their net long positions by 1,056 contracts to 143,039 in the week to Jan. 27, exchange data showed on Monday, as some took the view that prices were stabilizing from the sell-off that began in the summer. [O/ICE]
(Additional reporting by Robert Gibbons in New York, Claire Milhench and Himanshu Ojha in London and Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Dale Hudson, David Clarke and Jonathan Oatis)



Reuters