Three Unavoidable Reasons Why INEC Needs to Postpone The Elections

Like white noise, since the beginning of 2015 there has been something of a buzz in the air that suggested that the elections may not hold on February 14th as scheduled. Background chatter, hushed words from the grapevine and general political misdirection helped to heighten this tension, one that finally became embodied in the words of Nigeria’s national security adviser, Mr. Sambo Dasuki.

Dasuki, as we would remember, called on the Independent National Electoral Commission to delay the election, and the reason he gave was that the PVC distribution wasn’t as pervasive as one would expect.

In as much as this might disgruntle many of us, he isn’t lying.

If the figure of 68.8 million PVCs produced based on registered figures is to be believed (and if about 30 million voters are yet to receive their voters’ cards), it means that half of Nigeria’s voting population is already disenfranchised and any election conducted with a half number of what is obtainable is bound to suffer avoidable egregiousness.

Nigeria needs more time – The tension is here, even if it is understated. Nigeria is reaching a crucial boiling point. Most of Nigeria would argue that President Jonathan isn’t the best leader it could have had – but they are also worried that Buhari is just as terrible. Faced with the distasteful decision of choosing two leaders it would rather discard, the uncertainty levels are at an all-time high, one that is eagerly stoked by the campaigners for both the PDP and the APC.

With threats on the fringes about military intervention if things do not follow a predefined pattern and Boko Haram pillaging the North east and the Niger-Delta militants threatening a comeback if Jonathan doesn’t keep the throne, tensions are at an all-time high, and there is much to be said for postponing the elections and letting things cool down for a bit.

Foreign spectators envisage an unprecedented volley of violence no matter the outcome of the elections, and the security plans put in place so far do not inspire confidence in the possible casualty figures. Post-election violence marred the 2011 elections, but there is reason to fear that if the elections go on as scheduled, 2011's figures would look like a mere paper cut.

There is also the matter of the IDPs. They also have a right to vote – let’s face it; and if not for anything, to dispel the rumors that Boko Haram is allowed to thrive to water down the number of potential votes that Buhari is likely to rake from the North-East – where it is believed he is a favorite.